OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Head North
* In the equity space, a bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week's app...
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US TSY FUTURES: Modest Rounds Of Long Setting & Short Cover Seen Tuesday
OI data points to fairly non-committal trade on Tuesday, with only modest rounds of net long setting and short cover seen across the curve.
- The only positioning swing that topped $1mn in DV01 equivalent terms came via net short cover in WN futures, which proved enough to tilt the curve-wide bias in the same direction.
| 15-Apr-25 | 14-Apr-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 3,994,599 | 3,990,143 | +4,456 | +168,512 |
FV | 6,401,596 | 6,391,925 | +9,671 | +419,020 |
TY | 4,754,078 | 4,765,968 | -11,890 | -772,063 |
UXY | 2,221,109 | 2,220,633 | +476 | +42,168 |
US | 1,801,090 | 1,799,997 | +1,093 | +139,500 |
WN | 1,836,868 | 1,842,289 | -5,421 | -1,025,213 |
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| Total | -1,615 | -1,028,076 |
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: Another Soft Auction; Buxl Futures Soften
Another weak German auction following yesterday’s soft 5-year sale. The 0% Aug-52 Bund saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.90x, below November 2024’s 2.41x. The lowest accepted price of 46.60 was also below the 46.615 pre-auction mid price. The secondary market price of this Bund has since fallen to 46.371 at typing.
- The 2.90% Aug-56 Bund was the first re-opening since March’s syndicated launch (a reminder that this launch came amidst German fiscal-announcement induced volatility). The 100.00 low price was above the 99.979 pre-auction mid, but the secondary market price is now 99.563.
- Buxl futures have softened ~50 ticks since the results were published, now +34 ticks at 123.68
GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- Gold has continued to appreciate today and this reinforces the current bullish technical picture.
- The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend.
- The next objective is $3347.67, a 1.382 projection of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing.
- Initial firm support lies at 3092.1, the 20-day EMA.
- First support is at $3167.9, the Apr 3 high.
