OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In S&P E-Minis Still In Play
Apr-10 09:51
- In the equity space, the trend condition in {US} S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. The recent move down highlights a short-term corrective cycle. The contract has breached bull channel support drawn from the Jan 17 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open the 50-day EMA, at 5153.24 and the next key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. The primary uptrend in {EU} EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 4923.00, the Mar 19 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5079.00, Apr 2 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
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EQUITIES: Barclays call seller
Mar-11 09:49
BBL (19th April) 170c sold at 8.75 and 8.25 in 5.3k.
- OI in that strike stands at ~26.7k.
STIR: Softening In Labour Market Surveys Sees Light Dovish Flows In BoE Pricing
Mar-11 09:48
Signs of a continued cooling labour market (per lower tier survey data) leaves BoE-dated OIS pricing ~69bp of ’24 cuts vs. ~66bp shortly after the open.
- The first 25bp cut is once again fully discounted come the end of the Aug ’24 MPC.
- SONIA futures are unchanged to +6.0.
- UBS now expect the BoE’s first cut to come in August (from May prev.), while they now see 75bp of ’24 cuts (100 bp), which is close to market pricing.
- Further out, they still see 175bp of rate cuts in ’25, looking for Bank policy rate to sit at 2.75% at the end of '25.
- Key short term domestic risk events are today’s comments from BoE hawk Mann and tomorrow's UK labour market data.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Mar-24 | 5.200 | +1.2 |
| May-24 | 5.166 | -2.2 |
| Jun-24 | 5.071 | -11.7 |
| Aug-24 | 4.922 | -26.6 |
| Sep-24 | 4.787 | -40.1 |
| Nov-24 | 4.624 | -56.4 |
| Dec-24 | 4.496 | -69.3 |
ESM ISSUANCE: Long 5-year syndication: Spread set
Mar-11 09:43
- Spread set at MS+6bps (guidance was MS+8bps area)
- Size: E2bln WNG
- Settlement: 18-March-2024
- Maturity: 18-September-2029
- Coupon: Ann, ACT/ACT, short first to 18-Sep-2024
- ISIN: EU000A1Z99T1
- Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D/DM), DZ, SG
- Timing: Books to close at 10:15GMT / 11:15CET
From market source
