OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Oil Futures Extends
* On the commodity front, Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is consid...
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Oil Futures Remains Intact
- On the commodity front, Gold traded lower Friday as the yellow metal extended the pullback from $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Two key S/T levels have been breached; $3290.3, the 50-day EMA, and 3300.3, a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5. A reversal higher would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. Initial resistance is at $3339.6, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from last Monday’s high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.58. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
SOFR: Short Setting Dominated On Friday
OI data points to net short setting across most of the SOFR futures strip on Friday, with the only apparent exception through the blues coming via net long cover in SFRM5.
| 27-Jun-25 | 26-Jun-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,280,010 | 1,286,666 | -6,656 | Whites | +19,430 |
SFRU5 | 1,130,556 | 1,123,191 | +7,365 | Reds | +23,046 |
SFRZ5 | 1,282,535 | 1,267,292 | +15,243 | Greens | +16,820 |
SFRH6 | 979,985 | 976,507 | +3,478 | Blues | +9,664 |
SFRM6 | 866,072 | 859,253 | +6,819 |
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SFRU6 | 829,728 | 826,304 | +3,424 |
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SFRZ6 | 949,996 | 946,686 | +3,310 |
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SFRH7 | 713,341 | 703,848 | +9,493 |
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SFRM7 | 652,023 | 644,409 | +7,614 |
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SFRU7 | 456,988 | 456,232 | +756 |
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SFRZ7 | 412,208 | 408,819 | +3,389 |
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SFRH8 | 308,775 | 303,714 | +5,061 |
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SFRM8 | 232,190 | 231,039 | +1,151 |
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SFRU8 | 208,073 | 202,032 | +6,041 |
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SFRZ8 | 181,392 | 179,177 | +2,215 |
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SFRH9 | 141,003 | 140,746 | +257 |
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: MNI Connect Event - Atlanta Fed Bostic Outlook
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 06/30 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (40.5, 42.9)
- 06/30 1000 Atlanta Fed Bostic economic outlook at MNI event (no text, Q&A)
- 06/30 1030 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-15.3, -12.0)
- 06/30 1130 US Tsy $79B 13W & $71B 26W bill auctions
- 06/30 1300 Chicago Fed Goolsbee moderated discussion at Aspen Ideas Festival
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
