OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Gold Still In Play
Aug-01 10:39
- On the commodity front, Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3319.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.
- In the oil space, WTI futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The climb marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg, has been cleared. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.37.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above Its Recent Lows
Jul-02 10:33
- On the commodity front, Gold traded lower last Friday resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both support points would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. The metal has recovered from Monday’s low and for now, this highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.64. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
GILTS: Steepening Extends Post-Taylor
Jul-02 10:31
The early curve steepening theme extends after BoE MPC member Taylor’s dovish comments, with 2 year-yields -2bp in the time since, pushing 2s10s back above 65bp, last ~3bp steeper on the day.
- Initial upside interest in the spread located at the June closing high (66.97bp), with the year-to-date closing high (78.54bp) still some distance away.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: June ADP Employment, Challenger Job Cuts
Jul-02 10:28
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/02 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (1.1%, --)
- 07/02 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (47.0%, --)
- 07/02 0815 ADP Employment Change (37k, 98k)
- 07/02 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
