OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Bunds
- In the FI space, the trend in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish. However, Wednesday’s gains highlight a possible short-term reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, it suggests scope for a corrective bull cycle that would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. A continuation higher would open 132.55, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger has been defined at 130.28, the Jan 15 low, a break would resume the downtrend.
- The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains this week highlight the start of a corrective phase and if correct, signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 91.54. This average has been breached, a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger retracement, towards 92.27 next, the Jan 6 high. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. First support lies at 90.68, the Jan 16 low.
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UK: BOE: Instant Answer Questions for December meeting
Instant Answer questions for the December 2024 policy decision. Outcome to be posted at midday Thursday.
1. Was the Bank Rate changed, and if so by how much?
2. Number of members voting for 25bp cut?
3. Number of members voting for unchanged rate?
4. Number of members voting for other policy action?
NB: On questions 2-4 we will name the dissenters (and the magnitude of dissent)
5. Did the MPC drop reference to a “gradual approach” to removing “policy restraint being appropriate” from their Statement?
6. Did the MPC say that “the risks from inflation persistence are receding”?
7. Did the MPC again say Bank Rate is likely to “remain restrictive for sufficiently long”?
8. Did the MPC again say it will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”?
9. Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the November policy statement?
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -0.7% SA THRU DEC 13 WK
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -0.7% SA THRU DEC 13 WK
US MBA: REFIS -3% SA; PURCH INDEX +1% SA THRU DEC 13 WK
- US MBA: REFIS -3% SA; PURCH INDEX +1% SA THRU DEC 13 WK
- US MBA: UNADJ PURCHASE INDEX +6% VS YEAR-EARLIER LEVEL
- US MBA: 30-YR CONFORMING MORTGAGE RATE 6.75% VS 6.67% PREV
