OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bullish Gold Outlook

• Reoffer:101.621 to yield 5.0969%
• Spread set earlier at 4.375% Jan-40 Gilt + 8.0bps (Guidance was +8/8.5bps)
• Size: GBP9bln (above the GBP4.0-8.5bln MNI expected - although we had noted the top half of that range was likely).
• Orderbooks closed in excess of GBP128bln (including JLM interest of GBP7bln)
• Hedge ratio: 110% vs 4.375% Jan-40 gilt
• Maturity: 31 Jan 2041
• Settlement: 15 Oct 2025 (T+1)
• Coupon: 5.25% (short first)
• ISIN: GB00BVP99897
• JLMs: BofA / Barclays / DB / MS (B&D/DM) / RBC CM
• Timing: Hedge deadline 12:00BST

Source: Market source and MNI colour

ERM6 98.25/98.37 call spread vs 97.93 puts paper paid 0 for the call spread on +4K.

Markets Businesses:

• Wells Fargo: Markets revs up 6% Y/Y driven by higher revenue in equities, commodities, FX and Credit, offsetting weaker rates revenues
• BlackRock: Top growth sectors included iShares ETF business, which saw record demand.
• JPMorgan: Markets revenue up 25% Y/Y, with fixed income up 21%, equities up 33%
• Goldman Sachs: FICC sales & trading higher-than-expected, equities trading revenues lower than expected. Significantly revs in interest rate products and higher revs in mortgages and commodities, partially offset by significantly lower revs in FX and lower revs in credit. Equities reflected significantly lower revs in cash products.

Mortgages & Lending:

• Wells Fargo: Average loans higher by 2% Y/Y, with higher commercial loans, credit cards and auto loans offsetting declines for commercial RE and residential mortgages. Home lending revenues up 3% Y/Y, and up 6% from Q2, personal lending revs down 7% Y/Y
• JPM: Average loans up 7% Y/Y Firmwide

Charge-offs:

• Wells Fargo: Commercial loan charge-offs up $3mln to 18bps of average loans (CRE charge-offs 32bps of average loans)
• JPM: Net charge-offs were $2.0 billion, up $44 million. Reserve build driven by loan growth in Card Services and updates to certain macroeconomic variables in Card Services and Home Lending, partially offset by reduced borrower uncertainty.
• Goldman Sachs: Net charge-offs of $304 million for an annualized net charge-off rate of 0.6% (0.1% for wholesale loans, 5.6% for consumer loans)

Macro:

• JPM: Some signs of softening [in the US economy], particularly in jobs growth, but remains resilient. Continues to be heightened degree of uncertainty stemming from geopolitics, tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation.