OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Futures Intact
Jun-18 10:50
- On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3271.7, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 3344.8.
- In the oil space, WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and last Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted at $68.49, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
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EFSF ISSUANCE: New E3bln WNG 7-year syndication: Allocations out
May-19 10:47
- Spread set earlier at MS+34bps (guidance was MS+36bps area)
- Size: E3bln WNG
- Books closed in excess of E9.5bln (inc E700mln JLM interest)
- HR 102% vs 1.70% Aug-32 Bund
- Maturity: 27-Sep-2032
- Settlement: 26-May-2025 (T+5)
- Coupon: Short first to 27-Sep-2025
- Bookrunners: DB(B&D/DM)/DZ/GSBE SE
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAU4
- Timing: Hedge deadline 12:10BST / 13:10CET
From market source
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Pierces The 20-Day EMA
May-19 10:42
- In FX, EURUSD has started the week on a bullish note. The pair remains above last week’s low and recent weakness appears corrective. A key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1096, is intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend. Key trend signals continue to highlight an uptrend and, a key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction and highlight a bullish break.
- Recent weakness in GBPUSD appears corrective. The May 13 bounce highlights a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. The pattern remains valid and if correct, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle and a resumption of the uptrend. Key support to watch is 1.3117, the 50-day EMA. Sights are on the key resistance and a bull trigger, at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high.
- USDJPY continues to trade below the May 12 high and the pair maintains a softer tone. The latest pullback underpins the view that gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36, the May 6 low. 145.21, the 20-day EMA. has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high.
US TSY FUTURES: CFTC CoT Points To Sizable Fund & A Manager Cover In FV
May-19 10:40
The latest CFTC CoT report revealed a bias towards cover of existing positions for both asset managers and leveraged funds, with a particular focus on trimming exposure in FV futures.
- Note that leveraged funds did still manage to add a cumulative ~$6mn DV01 equivalent of net shorts across TY, US & WN.
- Asset managers remain net long across the curve, while leveraged funds are net short across all contracts.
- Wider non-commercial positioning saw a mix of net short setting and cover, with the cohort remaining net short across the curve (see table below).
