OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Futures Intact
Jun-13 10:57
- On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3255.2, the 50-day EMA. First support is at $3325.3, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures have traded sharply higher this week and today's rally marks an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to be volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted at today’s intraday low - at $68.49.
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EQUITIES: Credit Agricole Put Option
May-14 10:56
XCA (20th June) 14p, sold at 0.03 and 0.06 in 6.5k.
US TSYS: Modestly Firmer In A Thin Docket Before A Busy Thursday
May-14 10:50
- Treasuries are slightly firmer overnight, more comfortably back in the middle of yesterday’s range awaiting fresh drivers.
- It’s a thin data docket today (just weekly mortgage data) which sees Fed Vice Chair Jefferson in a little more focus at 0910ET, and with an eye on tomorrow’s April reports for US PPI and retail sales amongst others.
- US President Trump flies from Saudi Arabia to Qatar today.
- Cash yields are 0.5-1.5bp lower on the day, with declines led by the belly.
- TYM5 sits at 110-06+ (+ 07+) as it lifts a little more off yesterday’s latest lows of 109-30, on modest cumulative volumes of 280k.
- Technicals point to a bear mode condition, having most recently cleared support at 110-01+ (76.4% retrace of Apr 11 – May 1 bull leg) in a step closer to key support at 109-08 (Apr 11 low).
- Data: MBA mortgage applications (0700ET)
- Fedspeak: Jefferson (0910ET), Daly (1740ET) – see STIR bullet
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $60bn 17-w bills (1130ET)
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: Fed Speak Goolsbee, Waller, Jefferson, Daly
May-14 10:49
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 14-May Chicago Fed Goolsbee appr 30 minutes into NPR's Morning Edition
- 14-May 0515 Fed Gov Waller on central bank research (text, Q&A)
- 14-May 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (11.0%, --)
- 14-May 0910 Fed VC Jefferson economic outlook (text, no Q&A)
- 14-May 1130 US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auction
- 14-May 1740 SF Fed Daly fireside chat (no text, Q&A)
