OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gold Remains In Play
Sep-11 11:05
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high again this week. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3674.8, a 2.382 projection of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3490.5, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FOREX: GBP Crosses Contained By Technical Parameters; Focus On US CPI
Aug-12 10:56
Sterling has been relatively insulated from the light upside pressure in Gilt yields over the last ~60 minutes, with important technical parameters containing intraday ranges in several GBP/XXX crosses. This morning’s labour market report has set the tone for GBP today. The data was on balance stronger-than-expected, but there remain signs that overall conditions are still easing.
- EURGBP is down 0.3% today, troughing at 0.8621 and importantly leaving the 50-day EMA at 0.8612 untested. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bear threat, and expose the June 30 low at 0.8540.
- Yesterday’s highs of 1.3477 have contained upside in GBPUSD today, with cable currently up 0.2%. Short-term momentum is nonetheless pointed higher, with the Jul 24 high of 1.3589 the next notable upside level. Focus remains sharply on this afternoon’s US CPI report. We see more sensitivity to a downside surprise in July CPI, particularly in core goods components seen sensitive to tariffs. If realised, this could provide fresh upside impetus for cable.
- In the crosses, the psychological 200.0 handle has once again provided strong resistance in GBPJPY. The current trend set-up remains bullish however, with the cross currently on course for a sixth consecutive positive session and moving average studies operating in a bull-mode setup.
US TSYS: Little Changed Ahead Of CPI Report
Aug-12 10:49
- Treasuries are near unchanged across the curve ahead of the July CPI report (MNI CPI Preview).
- Cash yields are 0-0.5bp lower on the day across the curve, with 2Y yields at 2.768% hovering around a 38.2% retrace of the slide from 3.95% to 3.655% on the July payrolls report from Aug 1.
- TYU5 trades at 111-25 (-03+) on another thin session for overnight volumes nearing a cumulative 200k. The overnight low of 111-23 takes it a little further away from resistance at 112-15+ (Aug 5 high) whilst support isn’t seen until 110-19+ (Jul 24 low).
- Data: CPI Jul (0830ET), Real av earnings Jul (0830ET), Federal budget bal Jul (1400ET)
- Fedspeak: Barkin (1000ET), Schmid (1030ET) - see STIR bullet
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $85B 6-W bills (1130ET)
- Politics: White House Press Secretary Leavitt Briefing (1300ET). A limited public schedule for President Trump but with post-CPI remarks watched after his extraordinary termination of BLS’s McEntarfer after this month’s weak payrolls report.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Aug12 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Aug-12 10:45
- EUR/USD: $1.1500(E1.5bln), $1.1535-50(E1.2bln), $1.1650(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Y147.30-50($1.6bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6560-75(A$1.5bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3785($664mln)
