OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Intact
Feb-12 12:46
- In the FI space, a bull mode in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The breach of resistance at 128.58, the Jan 19 high and a key short-term resistance, strengthens the current uptrend. This signals scope for an extension towards 128.89, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 22 bear leg. Key support lies at 127.51, the Jan 23 low. Clearance of this level would signal a resumption of the recent downtrend. First support is 128.15, the 20-day EMA.
- Gilt futures remain firm. Today’s climb has resulted in a print above the 50-day EMA, at 91.20. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension towards 91.73, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 9 bear cycle. It is still possible that the latest recovery is a correction. Initial support to watch lies at 90.62, the Feb 11 low. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 89.76, the Feb 9 low.
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US DATA: Small Business Price Pressures Ease A Touch But Still Elevated
Jan-13 12:36
The NFIB small business survey saw a slight moderation in both backward- and forward-looking price metrics in December, although the former in particular followed a sharp increase and remains elevated by recent year standards.
- A net 30% of firms reported price increases compared to three months ago, moderating somewhat after the jump to 34% in Nov (highest since Mar 2023) from 21% in Oct (joint lowest since Aug 2024).
- Putting this 30% into perspective, it has only been higher in two months since May 2023, during which period it averaged 25%. This share averaged ~12% in immediate years after the pandemic.
- Planned price increases have been steadier meanwhile, most recently dropping to a net 28% expecting to increase prices over the next three months vs two months at 30% in Oct-Nov and 31% in Sep. It recently peaked at 32% back in June.
- Whilst down significantly from the 50s in late 2021/early 2022, it continues to remain stubbornly above the ~22% averaged in the pre-pandemic period.
- From the press release: “In December, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, unchanged from November. Beneath simple yes/no impact binary, there was a positive shift from those reporting a significant impact to those reporting a moderate or mild impact.”
- This unchanged/softer take on supply chain pressures goes against the NY Fed’s global supply chain metric which last week was calculated to be at its highest (most acute pressure) in nearly three years.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Remains Intact
Jan-13 12:32
- In the FI space, Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs and a short-term bull cycle is still in play. The latest rally does undermine the bear theme and attention is on resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 128.29. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a continuation higher, towards 128.75 initially, the Dec 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 126.75, the Dec 22 low.
- Gilt futures traded sharply higher last week. The contract is through resistance at 91.93, the Nov 27 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and paves the way for a climb towards 92.72 next, a 1.618 projection of the Dec 16 - 17 - 22 price swing. On the downside, initial support is seen at 91.84, the Jan 8 low. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 91.51. A break of the average would signal a possible reversal.
NATO: US' Vance To Participate In US-Denmark-Greenland Talks On 14 Jan
Jan-13 12:25
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has confirmed that the US-Denmark-Greenland meeting in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, 14 Jan, will now include VP JD Vance. This will be alongside Rasmussen, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt. Rasmussen said that Vance's participation meant the issue of Greenland's future is moving closer to direct talks with President Donald Trump.
- For the Danish and Greenlandic gov'ts, both vehemently opposed to any US takeover, Vance's presence will inevitably raise memories of the Oval Office meeting involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February 2025, when the VP lambasted the Ukrainian leader for alleged ingratitude towards the US.
- The issue of Trump's aim for the US to take control of Greenland has seen competing bills emerge in the US Congress.
- Late on 12 Jan, Politico reported that a bipartisan group of House members had submitted legislation "to prevent President Donald Trump from taking action to invade a NATO country or territory, like Greenland." This bill is led by Reps. Bill Keating (D-MA), Brendan Boyle (D-PA), and two retiring centrists, Don Bacon (R-NE), and Steny Hoyer (D-MD).
- Axios then reported on Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-CA)'s "Greenland Sovereignty Protection Act," which would prohibit funding for any sort of takeover, a military surge into existing US bases in Greenland, or a PR campaign aimed at the local population.
- Hardline conservative pro-MAGA Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL) put forward the extreme long-shot "Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act", which would give Trump near-unlimited powers in taking control of Greenland, and expedite a process to give Greenland US statehood.
