OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
* On the commodity front, the bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yello...
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US TSYS: J.P.Morgan Recommend Tactical 10s30s Flatteners
J.P.Morgan recommended tactical 10s30s flatteners late on Friday
- They reasoned that “most yield curves appear somewhat steep after controlling for medium-term Fed rate policy and inflation expectations, as well as a factor for trade policy uncertainty and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. This divergence is modest, but we think that the curve has room to flatten over the near term as markets push out the timing of the first expected ease”.
- At the upcoming FOMC meeting the expect “little change in the statement and the dots to move in a somewhat more hawkish direction”. However, they remain wary that “term premium still has room to trend higher over time, so broader flatteners would run against this view”, hence expressing this view tactically.
STIR: Short Setting Dominated In SOFR Whites On Friday
OI data points to net short setting dominating in the SOFR whites on Friday, before a more balanced round of net short setting and long cover was seen further out the strip as contracts finished lower.
| 13-Jun-25 | 12-Jun-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,070,640 | 1,068,294 | +2,346 | Whites | +142,066 |
SFRM5 | 1,538,404 | 1,413,375 | +125,029 | Reds | -16,982 |
SFRU5 | 1,155,967 | 1,148,923 | +7,044 | Greens | +20,662 |
SFRZ5 | 1,188,604 | 1,180,957 | +7,647 | Blues | -8,505 |
SFRH6 | 929,118 | 926,768 | +2,350 |
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SFRM6 | 876,419 | 877,743 | -1,324 |
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SFRU6 | 781,911 | 786,849 | -4,938 |
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SFRZ6 | 856,753 | 869,823 | -13,070 |
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SFRH7 | 664,110 | 664,676 | -566 |
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SFRM7 | 622,412 | 598,340 | +24,072 |
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SFRU7 | 428,905 | 432,542 | -3,637 |
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SFRZ7 | 403,985 | 403,192 | +793 |
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SFRH8 | 300,772 | 306,747 | -5,975 |
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SFRM8 | 200,233 | 211,254 | -11,021 |
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SFRU8 | 177,371 | 171,103 | +6,268 |
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SFRZ8 | 168,882 | 166,659 | +2,223 |
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Jun16 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.1400(E1.3bln), $1.1450-65(E2.0bln), $1.1500(E1.9bln), $1.1565-80(E1.6bln), $1.1600(E1.5bln), $1.1700(E4.6bln)
- USD/JPY: Y145.00($4.9bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6503-05(A$500mln), $0.6560-63(A$1.0bln)
