OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Remains Present
Jul-04 11:07
- On the commodity front, Gold is holding on to its latest gains. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction - this would expose $3245.5, the May 29 low. Note that the latest recovery highlights a possible false trendline break. Stronger gains would refocus attention $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Wednesday’s gains - for now - appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.84. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: RBC, BC, Macquarie Bond Issuance on Tap
Jun-04 11:03
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 06/04 $Benchmark RBC 60NC5 7.125%a
- 06/04 $Benchmark British Colombia 10Y SOFR+95
- 06/04 $Benchmark Macquarie 3Y +75a, 3Y SOFR
- 06/04 $Benchmark IDA 5Y SOFR+46
- $16.2B Priced Tuesday
EUR: EURAUD Threatening Close Below 50-Day EMA, Eyes Trendline Support
Jun-04 11:00
- EURAUD has been broadly respecting a 1.75-77 range over the past two weeks, and despite multiple tests below the 50-day EMA, has failed to close below this mark. A move back below the average, intersecting around 1.75, would also threaten a support trendline drawn from the February lows at 1.7475. Should AUDUSD make a meaningful attempt above 0.6500, this could signal scope for EURAUD to move back to the May lows at 1.7248 (shown below).
- We noted that while Australian Q1 GDP was weaker-than-expected and slower than Q4, it was impacted by extreme weather events in the quarter which impacted exports and domestic demand. Thus, there is likely to be some positive payback in Q2 and so a reaction by the RBA to the weakness at its July 8 decision is not assured.
- In similar vein, and ahead of the Bank of Canada, EURCAD appears vulnerable to a close below the 50-day EMA at 1.5591. Trendline support also intersects at 1.5555.
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -3.9% SA THRU MAY 30 WK
Jun-04 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -3.9% SA THRU MAY 30 WK
