OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Theme In Oil Futures Remains Intact

• On the commodity front, Gold has recently recovered from its lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.First support is $3282.8, the 20-day EMA. Today’s pullback is considered corrective.
• In the oil space, WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.71, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The price pattern on May 21 is a shooting star - a reversal signal.

Norwegian oil and gas firms expect offshore investment to total NOK269bln in 2025, according to Statistics Norway’s Q2 survey. That estimate is up from NOK254bln in the Q1 survey (i.e. a 6% increase), and implies a 9% Y/Y increase relative to 2024. These estimates are nominal amounts. 

• Stats Norway notes that the 2025 upward revision is driven by the “fields on stream” category. However, “the increase in estimates for this category of as much as 13 percent is artificially high because several fields have come into operation since the last measurement, and these have now been moved from the category of field development to fields on stream. The units included in field development in the current measurement have also collectively increased their estimates compared to the survey in 1st quarter even though the estimate for the category has technically gone down somewhat”.
• In 2026, nominal oil and gas investment is expected at NOK207bln, up from NOK197bln in the Q1 survey. Stats Norway notes that “the decline projected for 2026 is largely driven by lower indicated investment activity within the field development category. Additionally, the estimate for exploration and concept studies is lower than the estimate for 2025 for this category, given a year ago”.
• This fall in 2026 investments is linked to the fading tailwinds from the Government’s 2020 oil tax package, for which new plans for development and operation had to be submitted by the end of 2022. “Since the vast majority of ongoing developments have passed their investment peak, the count shows a clear decline in development investments in 2026”.
• Norges Bank’s March MPR projected real annual petroleum investment to grow 4.0% in 2025, but there are clear downside risks to this forecast after investment fell 10.0% Q/Q in Q1 (vs 0.0% expected by NB). 

US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET

• 27-May 0830 Durable Goods Orders (7.5% rev., -7.8%)
• 27-May 0830 Cap Goods Orders/Ship Nondef Ex Air
• 27-May 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.1%, 0.1%)
• 27-May 0900 House Price Purchase Index QoQ (1.4%, --)
• 27-May 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.4%, 0.2%)
• 27-May 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (86.0, 87.1)
• 27-May 1000 Conf. Board Present Situation (133.5, --)
• 27-May 1000 Conf. Board Expectations (54.4, --)
• 27-May 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (-35.8, -23.1)
• 27-May 1100 US Tsy $76B 13W bill auction, $68B 26W bill auction
• 27-May 1300 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
• 27-May 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y Note (91282CNE7)
• 27-May 2000 NY Fed Williams moderated discussion, Tokyo