LATAM: Pressure on Equities Prompts MXN Reversal, COP & PEN Underperform

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and key short-term resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1796 @ 18:54 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 1.1726/1667 Low Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and S/T weakness is considered corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Gains in the first half of last week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 1.1667. the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• PRICE: 1.3517 @ 19:01 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 1.3453 Low Sep 22
• SUP 2: 1.3441 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
• SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.3282 Low Aug 6      

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from last Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3441, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.

A survey from AP-NORC has found that pessimism among Republicans about the direction of the country has spiked for the first time since President Trump’s second inauguration. “In June, 29% of Republicans said the country was heading in the wrong direction. That number is now 51%.”

• AP notes, “Among Republicans, there are notable differences by age and gender: those under 45 are more likely than older Republicans (61% vs 43%) to say the country is off track, and Republican women are more likely than men (60% vs 43%) to share that view.
• AP adds, “Views on Donald Trump’s handling of the issues are highly partisan. Trump’s best issues are border security (55% approve) and crime (46%). Roughly 4 in 10 approve of his handling of health care, trade, the economy, the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians, foreign policy, and immigration. Overall, 39% of adults approve of the way Trump is handing his job as president and 60% disapprove.”
• Silver Bulletin notes that while "Trump’s overall approval rating looks about the same today as it did in mid-July, his approval on issues related to the economy has fallen more consistently."
• Silver Bulletin's Eli McKown-Dawson notes, "approval of how Trump is handling inflation has fallen so rapidly that I've had to extend the y-axis on our issue approval chart below -30." 

Figure 1: “Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the…?” (% saying wrong direction)

Source: AP-NORC