POLAND: Presidential Race Tightens On Eve Of Election Silence

The past 24 hours have seen a degree of compression in the gap between the two leading candidates' implied probabilities of victory of two leading presidential candidates based on betting market data, with front-runner Rafał Trzaskowski facing fresh accusations of irregularities in campaign financing. The news have exposed Trzaskowski to attacks from candidates from across the political spectrum.

• The story was first reported by Wirtualna Polska investigative journalists, who uncovered two Facebook profiles which have been publishing political advertisements promoting Trzaskowski and disparaging his main competitors. The administrator of the two profiles spent more on promotion than any of the formally registered electoral committees.
• A United Surveys/Wirtualna Polska opinion poll published this morning showed a narrowing in the gap between Trzaskowski (31.5%) and Nawrocki (26.6%). However, in a run-off scenario involving the two leading candidates, Trzaskowski still holds a comfortable 12.4pp lead over his rival, albeit only among decided voters.
• A separate survey conducted by UCE Research for Onet showed that the election campaign has had significant impact on voter intentions, with 34.1% of respondents admitting that they changed their preferences in the course of the campaign period. This might suggest a relatively high degree of voting preference volatility.
• National Electoral Commission (PKW) head said that the official results of the first round will likely be announced on Monday night or Tuesday morning. However, exit polls will be released when polling stations close at 20:00BST/21:00CEST on Sunday.
• Despite narrowing the distance to Trzaskowski, Nawrocki's win would still provide a major surprise. We discussed the different scenarios for this presidential election in our preview, along with the implications of specific outcomes.

Figure 1. Implied probability of presidential election win based on betting market (Polymarket) data.