POLAND: Presidential Race Tightens On Eve Of Election Silence

Another weak German auction following yesterday’s soft 5-year sale. The 0% Aug-52 Bund saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.90x, below November 2024’s 2.41x. The lowest accepted price of 46.60 was also below the 46.615 pre-auction mid price. The secondary market price of this Bund has since fallen to 46.371 at typing.

• The 2.90% Aug-56 Bund was the first re-opening since March’s syndicated launch (a reminder that this launch came amidst German fiscal-announcement induced volatility).  The 100.00 low price was above the 99.979 pre-auction mid, but the secondary market price is now 99.563.
• Buxl futures have softened ~50 ticks since the results were published, now +34 ticks at 123.68 

• Gold has continued to appreciate today and this reinforces the current bullish technical picture.
• The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend.
• The next objective is $3347.67, a 1.382 projection of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing.
• Initial firm support lies at 3092.1, the 20-day EMA.
• First support is at $3167.9, the Apr 3 high.