POLAND: President Nawrocki Begins Work, Expected To Table First Draft Bill
Aug-07 07:08
- President Karol Nawrocki is expected to unveil his first draft bill and appoint members of his Chancellery and National Security Bureau (BBN). According to Money.pl, he may also table draft bills on personal-income tax exemption for families with at least two children and on agricultural matters, before changing pace and waiting with other legislative projects, potentially until next year.
- Nawrocki's chief aide called the government's windfarm bill, which includes an amendment extending the electricity price freeze until the end of this year, a 'clumsy trap', which 'the President will know how to deal with'. He refused to rule out that Nawrocki could push for attending certain EU summits, despite the convention making the Prime Minister attend European Council meetings.
- Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka will speak alongside grid operator PSE CEO Grzegorz Onichimowski on power prices and energy security at 10:00BST/11:00CEST.
- The NBP will publish an update on its foreign reserves at 13:00BST/14:00CEST.
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Historical bullets
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: New 7-year Dec-32 / 3.75% Oct-45 tap: Books open
Jul-08 07:01
New 7-year Dec-32 EU-bond
- Size: E5bln (MNI expected E5-7bln, we still look for possible E6bln)
- Guidance: MS + 37bps area
- Coupon: Short first coupon
- Maturity: 13 December 2032
- ISIN: EU000A4ED0K0
3.75% Oct-45 EU-bond tap:
- Size: E3bln (MNI expected E3-5bln, we still look for possible E4bln)
- Guidance: MS + 97bps area
- ISIN: EU000A4EA8Y7 (immediately fungible)
For both:
- Settlement: 15 July 2025 (T+5)
- JLMs: BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank (DM/B&D), J.P. Morgan, Nomura
- Timing: Books open, pricing later today
From market source
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
Jul-08 06:59
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.6531 @ 07:58 BST Jul 08
- SUP 1: 0.6486 Low Jul 07
- SUP 2: 0.6472/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6472, the 50-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening calls - Downside risks
Jul-08 06:58
Wide calls for Gilt, Bund has caught up with the Bobl to the downside, the German 5/10s is flatter but is unwinding the opening move, German 10yr Yield now test 2.67%
- Range for Gilt, 91.81/92.04, but potential downside risks.
