COMMODITIES: Precious Metals Rebound, Crude Steady
Oct-30 18:47
- Gold has risen today after yesterday’s Trump-Xi meeting failed to completely ease fears around the trade war.
- Spot is currently up by 2.1% at $4,011/oz, leaving price around 8.5% below last week’s all-time high of $4,381.5.
- President Trump’s meeting with President Xi stopped short of a comprehensive agreement, although China did agree to pause its rare earth licensing regime for at least a year, while the US will halve its fentanyl tariffs immediately.
- The recent retracement in gold has allowed an overbought trend to unwind. Price remains below the 20-day EMA at $4,025.6, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA, at $3,852.7.
- Initial resistance is at $4,161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- Meanwhile, silver has also rebounded by 2.8% to $48.9/oz, leaving price around 10% below this month’s record high.
- Trend signals in silver are bullish, and the recent sharp pullback is considered corrective. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at $45.849. It remains intact but a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- Initial resistance is at $49.456, the Oct 23 high.
- Elsewhere, crude has reversed earlier slight losses, with the market weighing the impacts of US sanctions on Rosneft/Lukoil against oversupply concerns ahead of OPEC’s meeting on Sunday.
- WTI Dec 25 is up by 0.1% at $60.5/bbl.
- Initial resistance is at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, while key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Off Lows, Narrow Ranges Ahead Likely Shutdown
Sep-30 18:46
- Stocks continue to drift near steady (SPX eminis) to mildly negative late Tuesday, apprehension over a looming US government shutdown at midnight tonight keeping trading accounts at bay. Currently, the DJIA trades down 25.04 points (-0.05%) at 46284.74, S&P E-Minis up 6.5 points (0.1%) at 6719.5, Nasdaq down 0.8 points (0%) at 22588.13.
- Energy, Financial and Consumer Discretionary sector shares continued to lead decliners in the second half.
- Oil and gas stocks weaker as crude prices retreat even after OPEC issued a statement rejecting reports of production increases: Schlumberger -3.30%, Occidental Petroleum -2.91%, Halliburton -2.68%, Marathon Petroleum -2.53% and Phillips 66 -2.33%.
- A mix of financial services and travel related shares weighed on Financial and Consumer Discretionary sectors: Capital One Financial -5.83%, KKR & Co -5.57%, Apollo Global Management -5.53% and Blackstone -4.98%; MGM Resorts Int -6.21%, Expedia Group -3.40%, Las Vegas Sands -3.19% and Wynn Resorts -3.13%.
- On the positive side, Health Care and Information Technology sector shares led gainers. Pfizer climbed over 6% after headlines reported the pharmaceutical maker will get a three year grace period from Trump's drug tariffs. Merck & Co gained +4.85% and IQVIA Holdings +4.70%.
- Dell Technologies +3.71%, NVIDIA +2.51% and Super Micro Computer +2.91% supported the Tech sector.
US TSY OPTIONS: Nov'25 5Y Calls
Sep-30 18:31
- appr 12,000 FVX5 110 calls, 7.0-7.5 ref 109-07, total volume over 23,100
USDJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support
Sep-30 18:30
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 149.96 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 147.96 @ 16:33 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 147.59 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
- SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7
USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high print. The move down - for now - appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 147.59, the 50-day EMA. Pivot support has been defined at 145.49, the Sep 17 low. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.
