COMMODITIES: Precious Metals Pull Back, Crude Falls Amid Scope For Vennie Supply
Jan-07 19:57
- Precious metals have pulled back on Wednesday, with gold falling by 0.8% to $4,457/oz and silver down by 3.5% at $78.4/oz. At the same time, platinum has also fallen by ~6%, while palladium is down by almost 4%.
- Despite the move, prices remain notably higher compared with levels a week ago, and bullish technical conditions remain in place, aided by geopolitical tensions stemming from US/Venezuela developments.
- For gold, initial resistance and the bull trigger is the Dec 26 all-time high of $4,550. A break of this level would open $4,578.3, a Fibonacci projection.
- First support at $4,361.7, the 20-day EMA, which has been pierced.
- Similarly, the trend set-up for silver remains bullish, with the bull trigger at $84.008, the Dec 29 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- The first important support to watch lies at $70.674, the 20-day EMA.
- Elsewhere, WTI crude is lower today after President Trump announced that Venezuela will ship up to 50m bbl of oil to the US. In addition, CNBC reported that such flows will continue in return for reduced sanctions on Venezuela.
- WTI Feb 26 is down by 1.6% at $56.2/bbl.
- From a technical perspective, a bearish theme for WTI futures remains in place, with initial support at $54.89, the Dec 16 low. Below here, a resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for a move towards $53.77, a Fibonacci projection.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'26 30Y Ultra-Bond Sale
Dec-08 19:42
- -1,500 WNH6 118-08, sell through 118-09 post time at 1432:26ET, DV01 $272,500.
- The 30Y Ultra contract trades 118-08 last (-13)
US TSY OPTIONS: Feb'26 10Y Ratio Put Spread
Dec-08 19:34
- 11,187 TYG6 110.5/112.5 3x2 put spds, 109 net ref 112-10
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Phase Exposes The 50-Day EMA
Dec-08 19:30
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 156.58/157.89 High Nov 28 / 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 155.90 @ 16:40 GMT Dec 8
- SUP 1: 154.35 Low Dec 5
- SUP 2: 153.41 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29
Recent weakness in USDJPY is considered corrective. The deeper retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. An extension lower would expose the 50-day EMA at 153.49 and the next important support. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 158.00.
