FED: Powell Reiterates the FOMC Can Afford to be Patient
May-07 19:18
- Q: We talked about some of the occasions of potential layoffs, price hikes and economic slowdown all be evident in the soft data. I'm curious why the Fed needs to wait for that to translate into hard data to make any type of monetary policy decision, especially if the hard data is not as timely or might be warped by tariff-related effects. Are you worried that the soft data might be some sort of false warning?
- A: No. Look at the state of the economy. The labor market is solid. Inflation is low. We can afford to be patient as things unfold. There's no real cost to our waiting at this point.
- Q: There was this sort of vibe-cession, if you will, where the sentiments expressed in soft data did not translate into the hard economic data. How are you thinking about that when interpreting some of the signs in the softer survey data?
- A: I think going back a number of years, the link between sentiment data and consumer spending has been weak. It's not been a strong link at all. On the other hand, we haven't had a move of this speed and size. So, it wouldn't be the case that we are looking at this and just completely dismissing it. But it's another reason to wait and see.
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TARIFFS: Trump Administration Officials Debating Exporter Tax Credit - Bloomberg
Apr-07 19:13
There’s been a mildly negative but slow to build reaction in equity indices since the below story, potentially because it signals another lack of off-ramp on tariff policy. It also followed shortly after surprisingly weak consumer credit data.
- Bloomberg writes that “Trump administration officials are debating the merits of creating a new exporter tax credit, a move that offers an implicit acknowledgment of the harm that the White House’s tariff policies risk inflicting on US companies.” See the full Bloomberg story here.
- “The rebate, which would be geared toward boosting US manufacturers, would be issued at the end of the year to offset the effects of retaliatory tariffs as American companies seek to sell their goods in foreign markets, according to people familiar with the deliberations.”
- The anonymous sources note that “Neither President Donald Trump nor Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been formally briefed on the plan, and the idea has divided the administration’s economic team, they said.”
- There’s been a slow mildly negative reaction in equity indices since the headlines, which followed shortly after surprisingly weak consumer credit data, potentially because it signals a lack of off-ramp on tariff policy.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Apr-07 19:12
SOFR option volumes picked up as the day progressed, took a bearish tone as underlying futures retreated from early highs. While projected rate cuts through mid-2025 have cooled from this morning's highs - they still reflect first full 25bp cut still priced in for June and over a full point by year end. Current levels vs. early morning (*) as follows: May'25 at -11.1bp (-13.1bp), Jun'25 at -33.3bp (-35.3bp), Jul'25 at -55.4bp (-60.6bp), Sep'25 -72.4bp (-80.4bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +10,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.43/97.25 call flys 4.0 vs. 96.44/.08%
- +10,000 0QJ5 97.25/97.75 call spds 2.25 ref 96.835
- -20,000 2QM5 96.75/97.00 call spds 9.0 over 95.50/95.75 put spds vs. 96.78/0.18%
- +5,000 SFRK5 95.68/95.93/96.18 call flys, 10.0 ref 96.07
- +5,000 0QK5 97.50/98.00 call spds, 4.0 ref 96.855
- Block, 10,000 SFRZ5 95.12/95.62 put spds, 1.5 vs. 96.665/0.05%
- Block, 24,000 SFRM5 96.25/96.87 call spds, 13.25 splits
- -7,500 SFRZ6 96.75/97.75 call spds, 38.5-39.0
- -10,000 SFRH7 96.75/97.75 call spds, 38.5-38 ref 96.875
- -7,000 0QU5 97.00/98.00 call spds, 23.5 ref 96.935
- +7,500 0QN5 96.75/97.25/97.75 call flys vs 0QU5 97.25/97.75 call spds, 2.75 Sep over
- -6,000 SFRU5 96.25/96.62 3x2 put spds, 26.5
- 2,500 SFRK5 95.75/95.87/96.00 put flys
- Block 3,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.50 3x2 put spds 27.0 ref 96.52
- 1,500 0QK5 97.50/98.00 call spds vs. 0QM5 98.00 calls
- 12,750 SFRM5 95.62/95.75 put spds ref 96.13
- Block/screen, 20,000 SFRK5 95.68/95.93/96.18 call flys, 9.0-9.5
- 3,000 SFRK5 95.50/95.62/95.75 put flys ref 96.175
- 3,000 SFRM5 96.50/97.00/97.50 call flys ref 96.195
- 2,500 0QK5/0QM5 98.00 call spds, 2.0 ref 97.07
- 2,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.37 call spds ref 96.885
- 1,500 SFRZ5/SFRH6 99.50 call spds
- over 9,100 0QJ5 97.50/98.00 call spds ref 97.115 to -.105
- Treasury Options:
- 1,500 TYK5 110.5/114 strangles 40 ref 112-00
- 3,000 FVK5 109/111.25 call spds vs 107.5 puts ref 108-31.75
- 5,000 TYK5 112/113/114 call trees ref 112-04
- 9,500 TYK5 112.25 puts, 55-56 ref 112-08.5 to -07.5
- 5,000 TYK 110 puts
- Block: 40,000 TYK5 114 calls vs. 35,000 TYM5 116 call spds vs. 5,998 TYM at 113-01.5
- Block, 1635 WNM5 113/119 put spds 53 vs. 124-19/0.14%^
- -1,000 TYM5 111/112/113 call flys, 9
- +4,000 UXYM5 112/113 put spds, 9
- 3,000 TYM5 109/110/112 broken put flys ref 113-04 to -03.5
- 2,800 TYK5 111 puts, 8 ref 113-15.5
MNI: US FEB CONSUMER CREDIT -$0.8B
Apr-07 19:00
- MNI: US FEB CONSUMER CREDIT -$0.8B
- US FEB REVOLVING CREDIT +$0.1B
- US FEB NONREVOLVING CREDIT -$0.9B
