FED: Powell Reiterates Prior Language on Inflation vs Employment Risks
- Powell notes that while data available prior to shutdown show economic growth may be on a "somewhat firmer trajectory than expected", "the shutdown of the federal government will weigh on economic activity while it persists, but these effects should reverse after the shutdown ends".
- He notes that demand for labor has "clearly softened". "Available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low", Noting that "in this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have arisen in recent months."
- Powell reiterates previous language on inflation vs employment risks: "Tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods, resulting in higher overall inflation. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short lived a one time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed. Our obligation is to ensure that a one time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem in the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside a challenging situation. There is no risk free path for policy"
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 149.96 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 148.61 @ 16:14 BST Sep 29
- SUP 1: 148.38/147.55 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
- SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7
USDJPY traded higher last week as the pair extended the recovery that started Sep 17. A bullish candle on Sep 17 - a hammer - provided an early reversal signal and remains valid. Also, MA studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 149.14, the Sep 3 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 150.92, the Aug 1 high and key resistance. Pivot support is 145.49, Sep 17 low. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.
SOFR OPTIONS: Nov'25 SOFR Put Fly
- +30,000 SFRX5 95.93/96.00/96.06 put flys, cab ref 96.29
US: Left Wing Violence On The Rise, Raises Prospect Of Federal Response
Halfway through 2025, attacks by far-left extremists outpaced far-right violence for the first time in more than three decades, according to new research from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), cited by Axios. The report notes, "2025 marks the first time in more than 30 years that left-wing terrorist attacks outnumber those from the violent far right.”
- Daniel Byman, a Georgetown professor who's the lead author of the CSIS study, told Axios in a phone interview that many "extremists on the far right ... are more comfortable with the Trump policies, and that may be ... why we've seen a reduction in violence." Byman warned against the data being used "as an excuse for a crackdown on legitimate organizations."
- Comes as President Donald Trump announces the deployment of federal troops to Portland, Oregon, to quell protests that the White House says are interfering with immigration enforcement.
- “At the request of Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, I am directing Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to provide all necessary Troops to protect War ravaged Portland, and any of our ICE Facilities under siege from attack by Antifa, and other domestic terrorists. I am also authorizing Full Force, if necessary,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Figure 1: Left- and Right-Wing US Domestic Terrorism Attacks
Source: Axios, CSIS
