FED: Powell - Dissents Were Part Of A Good Meeting
Asked about today's dissents, Powell says it was "a good meeting" with participants putting "their positions out there". " "The majority of the Committee was of the view that inflation is a bit above target, maximum employment is at target. That calls for modestly restrictive, in my way of thinking, modestly restrictive stance right now."
- On whether the June SEP represents where the core of the Committee is, Powell doesn't exactly endorse it (which, recall, showed 50bp of cuts by year-end as the median): "I couldn't point to it six weeks later as expressing people's thoughts. You can't do that." He says they didn't prepare an updated SEP at this meeting "and I don't like to substitute in my own estimate of what the SEP might be. I will say we haven't made decisions about monitoring all of the incoming data and asking ourselves whether the federal funds rate is in the right place."
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US: Majority Of US Voters Back Tariffs To Safeguard Jobs/Industry - TIPP
A new survey from I&C/TIPP has found that American voters, “seem to have a kind of love-hate relationship with Trump’s taxes imposed on imports, even as a means of encouraging more domestic production and shrinking the U.S. trade deficit.”
- Asked: “Do you support or oppose placing tariffs on foreign goods if the goal is to protect American jobs and industries?” “…a solid 53% of American adults said they either would “strongly support” (26%) or “somewhat support” (27%) tariffs on imports, if it protected jobs and industries. Of the remainder, 36% said they would either “strongly oppose” (19%) or “somewhat oppose” (17%) tariffs, while 11% were not sure.”
- TIPP notes: “Democrats showed only mild backing (36% support, 54% oppose) for tariffs to protect jobs and industries, compared to stronger backing from Republicans (75% support, 17% oppose) and independents (46% support, 38% oppose).”
Figure 1: Support or Oppose Tariffs on Foreign Imports if the Goal is to Protect American Jobs and Industries?
Source: I&C/TIPP
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Alternative Energy Under the Weather
- Stocks are mildly higher in late Monday trade - holding to narrow ranges ahead of a heavy data (shortened) week. Markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday Friday, which draws the June employment release one day forward.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 113.14 points (0.26%) at 43931.97, S&P E-Minis up 7 points (0.11%) at 6231, Nasdaq up 12.4 points (0.1%) at 20286.85.
- Stocks gained earlier after Canada withdrew plans to implement a digital tax on US tech companies economic advisor Kevin Hassett confirmed Monday - the tax had spurred Pres Trump to terminate trade talks late last Friday.
- Otherwise, "90 deals in 90 days" remains a tall order ahead the July 9 deadline, while Pres Trump floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on Japan’s cars as talks between the two nations continued with little more than a week to go before a slew of higher duties are set to kick in if a trade deal isn’t reached.
- Technology sector shares continued to lead gainers in late trade: Hewlett Packard Enterprise +11.65%, Juniper Networks +8.35%, First Solar +8.21%, Palantir Technologies +5.15%, Oracle Corp +4.59% and Arista Networks +3.53%.
- Conversely, Industrials - particularly stocks that dealt with alternative energy retreated Monday as Pres Trump's "Big" policy looks to withdraw clean energy initiatives: Ralliant Corp -8.25%, Fortive Corp -5.21%, Boeing -3.00%, Lamb Weston Holdings -2.88% and Albemarle Corp -2.71%.
USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 146.19/148.03 High Jun 24 / 23
- PRICE: 144.16 @ 17:02 BST Jun 30
- SUP 1: 143.75 Low Jun 26
- SUP 2: 142.80 Low Jun 13
- SUP 3: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
A bear threat in USDJPY remains present. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlights a reversal of the recent recovery and price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the averages would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 142.12, the May 27 low and a key short-term support. On the upside, a move above 148.03, the Jun 23 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.
