UKRAINE: PoW Swap Agreed, But No Apparent Progress Towards Ceasefire
Following the conclusion of the first direct talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegates in three years, both sides have agreed to an exchange of 1,000 PoWs, according to Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who headed the Ukrainian delegation. Umerov says that a ceasefire was discussed between the two sides, as were potential contacts between Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin.
- The Russian side also confirmed Ukraine's request for leader-level talks, adding it was 'satisfied' with the discussions and that talks will continue. Russian delegation head Vladimir Mendinsky said "We have agreed that each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire"
- Zelenskyy, currently attending the European Political Community summit in Tirana, Albania, said that "Ukraine is ready to take the fastest possible steps for real peace, and it is important that the world holds strong positions,". Zelenskyy held a call with US President Donald Trump, with the leaders of France, Germany, Poland and the UK also participating.
- Oliver Carrell at The Economist posts on X regarding the alleged tone of Russian delegation in the talks: "Have an inside view into the Russia-UA talks from a well-placed source. This from Ru delegation head Medinsky says it all: “We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes. [...] How long are you ready to fight?”...And another quote attributed to Medinsky: “Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones. Russia is prepared to fight forever.”
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CANADA: Election Debate Moved To Earlier Timeslot, Green Co-Leader Disqualified
The first leaders' debate of the federal election campaign taking place this evening and broadcast on CBC News Network has been moved to an earlier timeslot. The French-language debate was due to start at 2000ET, but has been moved two hours forward to 1800ET (0100BST, 0900JST). The second debate (in English) is scheduled for tomorrow (17 April) at 1900ET.
- A second change is that Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault has been excluded from both debates. The Leaders' Debates Commission ruled that the reduction in ridings the Greens are contesting "for strategic reasons" means it no longer hits two of the three criteria (having one MP in the Commons, hitting 4% in nationwide polling, standing in at least 90% of ridings). As such, there will be four leaders on the stage: Carney, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, regionalist Bloc Québécois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, and left-wing New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh.
- While the impact of election debates can be non-existent or hugely consequential (see last year's Trump vs Biden debate in the US), tonight's debate will be most keenly followed in Canada's largest Francophone province, Quebec.
- CTV News quotes Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, “Now that people have been exposed to (Carney’s) French, it’s been criticised a lot, but it has not really affected voters that much, at least their opinion. And I think that’s related to the fact that the focus of the campaign isn’t really about culture, language or Quebec, or even [...] federalism. It’s about who can stand up to Donald Trump and who can fight for our economy...”
- The time shift is in order to avoid a clash with the crucial NHL contest between the Montreal Canadiens and the Carolina Hurricanes. A win/regulation tie for the Habs could see them enter the playoffs for the first time since the COVID-affected 2020-21 season.
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 8-Poll Moving Average
Source: Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Abacus Data, Innovative Research, Angus Reid, Pollara, MQO Research, Leger, Research Co., Ekos, Ipsos, Pallas Data, MNI
