/POV: DOTS TAKE ON HIGHER IMPORTANCE AT.........>

FED: /POV: DOTS TAKE ON HIGHER IMPORTANCE AT DECEMBER FOMC: The Fed will hold

rates on Wednesday, but attention will be paid to other elements, esp Dot Plot.

- Base Case: Modest statement changes, no dissents, no change in IOER or

announcements on balance sheet policy. Minor changes to econ projections, dot

plot shifts 25bps lower for 2019-22 vs Sept to reflect October cut, no change to

long-term median. Powell again stresses there is no preset path for policy;

would take a "material reassessment" of outlook before moving.

- Dovish: Core PCE forecast falls further below 2.0%; dots come close to

suggesting no 2021 hike, w multiple dots showing 2020 cut; long-run dot revised

lower. Powell emphasises bar to hiking is high, while also underlining trade war

fears, low inflation outlook, and decelerating consumer activity.

- Hawkish: Several dots indicate 2020 hike, with upside skew in dots overall;

median core PCE inflation forecast may go above 2%. Powell places emphasis on

strong jobs growth, reiterates that the economic 'glass [is] much more than

half-full', trade risks are dissipating.

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