EU TRANSPORTATION: PostNL: Secondary (correction)
Sep-26 11:14
(PNLNA: NR/BBB-/NR)
The PostNL curve is simply wrong - there is no evidence of the step being priced. The €31s are actually rallying alongside the new issue today.
Some may rebut that they choose to assign no probability of a junking - and hence a step. If that was a market view, the entire curve would be trading tighter.
If it is every junked the spread will force-correct and widen significantly.
- 5y: now +144 (-16) vs. Final +160 vs. FV +140 (20bp NIC)
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US TSY FUTURES: September'25-December'25 Roll Update: 80%-90% Complete
Aug-27 11:11
Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete currently 80%-90% ahead "First Notice" date this Friday, August 29. Current roll details:
- TUU5/TUZ5 appr 97,100 from -9.25 to -9.12, -9.12 last; 90% complete
- FVU5/FVZ5 appr 229,500 from -5.75 to -5.5, -5.5 last; 83% complete
- TYU5/TYZ5 appr 144,400 from -1.25 to -0.75, -1.0 last; 83% complete
- UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 100,300 from +0.0 to +0.5, 0.25 last; 82% complete
- USU5/USZ5 appr 28,000 from 12.25 to 13.0, 12.75 last; 81% complete
- WNU5/WNZ5 appr 34,100 from 7.75 to 8.0, 7.75 last; 83% complete
- Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30.
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -0.5% SA THRU AUG 22 WK
Aug-27 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -0.5% SA THRU AUG 22 WK
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
Aug-27 10:53
- On the commodity front, Gold traded higher Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A stronger resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. First key support is $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high.
