US TSYS: Post-Tariff Pause Sentiment Shaken, Not Stirred

• Spot gold has risen by 1.1% to $2,921/oz today, keeping it within sight of last month’s record high at $2,956.
• On-going tariff uncertainties and talk of a US recession have added to haven demand for the yellow metal, which analysts at JP Morgan say could set up a very constructive scenario for gold in H2.
• From a technical perspective, gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition remains bullish, however, and a stronger rally would refocus attention on $2,962.2, a Fibonacci projection.
• Meanwhile, silver is outperforming today, with a 2.6% rally to $32.95/oz, the highest level since Feb 21.
• A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend, opening $34.0 round number resistance.
• WTI is higher on the day to regain some of yesterday’s decline. Pressure remains amid rising global growth concerns and the return of OPEC+ barrels.
• The market remains bearish overall, although a squeeze on Venezuelan and Iranian supply via sanctions could add some upside.
• WTI Apr 25 is up by 0.7% at $66.5/bbl.
• For WTI futures, a bearish trend condition in remains intact, with recent weakness paving the way for an extension towards $63.61, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.21, the 50-day EMA.

USD/CAD corrects lower on the Ford headlines - Trump was particularly critical of the electricity surcharges levied against US consumers on Truth Social earlier today, which may be playing out in Ontario's decision to suspend the measures. Some positivity also clearly being read into Ford's comment that a "renewed" USMCA deal will be discussed ahead of the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline.

• USD/CAD is now pressuring earlier daily lows of 1.4394, meaning the pair has shed ~125 pips off the daily high. Clearance and close below 1.4394 would help the formation of a bearish candle on the daily charts, however the pair remains sharply higher on the week.
• The Thursday/Friday USD/CAD candles resemble a bullish engulfing line - and spot will have to trade through 1.4280 to erase any positive signals from this formation. This keeps the BoC decision tomorrow particularly live (see our preview for this just above), mirrored in the jerk higher for overnight CAD vols today (up to 12 points from ~7 points at the beginning of the week).

• Initially spurred by the Ukraine ceasefire headlines, stocks extend hteir recovery off lows, with the cash S&P 500 broadly back to unchanged to erase the day's deficit. Intraday price action has seen a further jolt higher as Ontario's Ford confirms they have suspended a 25% electricity surcharge that had targeted the US - a sign of reconciliation between the US and Canada. The bounce sticking in recent trade, as oversold tech names and consumer discretionary stocks begin to creep higher.
• These sectors have been the laggards since the Trump inauguration, and the marginal good news that Ukraine could accept terms on a US-proposed ceasefire has been sufficient to prompt a short-covering based rally. Markets await confirmation from Moscow on any deal here - which could serve as a further positive catalyst.
• Infitting with the bounce theme, single stocks that have suffered the brunt of recent weakness are sharply higher: Tesla and Netflix shares are gaining ~5% apiece.
• The e-mini S&P is back above the 5600 level having printed down at 5534.00 earlier today - firm resistance to watch remains 5979.06, the 50-day EMA.