FOREX: Post-NFP Dollar Move Sticks: EUR Move Most Convincing

Aug-01 12:47

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* This USD move is sticking well in recent trade, following in lockstep with the sizeable move in ...

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US: Key House Procedural Vote On OBBB Expected At 11:00 ET 16:00 BST

Jul-02 12:46

The House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) has circulated a memo indicating that the House of Representatives will hold a first procedural vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill at 09:00 ET 14:00 BST, followed by a vote to adopt the rule 11:00 ET 16:00 BST.

  • The bill's rules were set by the House Rules Committee early this morning after a 12-hour committee session. Conservative hardliners on the panel, Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC), joined with Democrats to vote against the rule, signalling that House Speaker Johnson (R-LA) faces stiff opposition from his conservative flank.
  • As will be the case in the TBD final vote, Johnson can drop only three votes to adopt the rule, if all members are present. The precise maths is unclear as some House reps have been stranded by bad weather.
  • President Donald Trump has no public events on his schedule today, indicating he will spend most of the day on the phone with wavering House Republicans. Punchbowl reports: "THE WHITE HOUSE is hosting multiple meetings today with House Republicans as President TRUMP works to try to get his domestic policy agenda passed. Members of the HFC among the groups."
  • Reports from Congress suggest there are upward of 20 House Republicans currently threatening to vote against the package. Our baseline scenario is that conservative and moderate rebels will ultimately fold, sending the bill to Trump's desk either today or tomorrow.
  • Please see our US Daily Brief for detailed analysis. 

GILTS: Long End Erases Most Of June Rally

Jul-02 12:45

10-Year yields have risen by over 16bp on the day, with the benchmark less than 3bp away from erasing the entirety of the move lower seen in June. Meanwhile, 30s have more then reversed June’s move lower, last printing ~6bp above May’s closing levels.

US DATA: A Large Miss For ADP As Slowing Trend Escalates

Jul-02 12:40

ADP employment surprisingly fell in June as it continued a trend of clear moderation in recent months compared to what has been a steadier trend for private payrolls up to May ahead of tomorrow’s NFP release. Declines were led by two sectors in particular, one of which has had a strangely weak relationship with BLS payrolls, but it’s still a soft report no matter how you look at it. 

  • ADP private sector employment was much weaker than expected in June as it fell -33k (sa, cons 98k) along with last month’s soft print confirmed with a downward revision to 29k vs the initial 37k.
  • The decline was led by professional & business services (-56k after -13k, its sharpest decline since Feb 2023) and education & health services (-52k after -16k, its sharpest decline since Jul 2020).
  • The typically cyclically insensitive education & health services component is showing an increasingly puzzling disconnect with NFP industry data although the weakness in professional & business is more concerning from a direct readthrough for tomorrow’s NFP print.
  • Financial activities rounded out the third sector with net job losses in June, -14k for its first decline since Sep 2024 and its largest decline since Dec 2022.
  • To the upside, leisure & hospitality continued to fare well, rising 32k after 43k and showing no sign of reduced discretionary demand in those sectors.
  • There isn’t a clear-cut story for job losses by firm size although the very smallest did suffer the most. Those with 1-19 employees saw -29k after -8k, 20-49 employees saw -18k after -5k and 250-499 -27k after -7k, whilst those with 50-249 saw +12k after +53k and 500+ +30k after -4k.
  • The -29k drop in those with 1-19 employees is the sharpest since Mar 2022.