US TSYS: Post-Hose Starts/Build Permits React
Jul-18 12:37
- Treasuries pare support slightly after higher than expected Housing Starts & Build Permit data: Sep'25 10Y contract +8 at 110-24.5 vs. -26.5 high. Initial resistance is at 111-30+, the 20-day EMA.
- Curves mildly steeper: 2s10s +0.494 at 54.763, 5s30s +1.133 at 102.814.
- Cross asset: Bbg US$ index off lows, BBDXY -3.38 at 1204.20; stocks mildly higher (SPX eminis +5.50 at 6343.5); gold up 20.37 at 3359.32.
- Next data at 1000ET: U. of Mich. Sentiment
- Fed speak at 1505ET: Chicago Fed Goolsbee on Yahoo! Finance
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: Post-Claims, House Starts/Permits React
Jun-18 12:36
- Still bid, Treasuries paring gains slightly after latest round of data: house starts & build permits much lower than est (prior up-revised); weekly claims in-line, continuing claims slightly higher but prior down-revised.
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures trades +3.5 at 110-30.5 vs. 111-01.5 high, below key resistance and its recent high of 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement.
- Curves flatter, 2s10s -0.507 at 42.776, 5s30s -.093 at 89.719. 10Y yield at 4.3692% vs. 4.3554% low.
- Cross asset: Stocks little firmer (SPX eminis +8.0 at 6046.5), Gold mildly higher at 3389.50, Bbg US$ index little lower at 1206.93 -2.14.
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Wait For Trump Decision On Iran Continues
Jun-18 12:34
Download Full Report Here
- At midday Eastern Time, President Trump is expected to make his first public appearance since the Situation Room meeting yesterday to deliberate on policy regarding Iran. The prevailing view amongst observers is that Trump appears close to authorising limited strategic strikes on Iran's fortified nuclear facilities.
- At 13:00 ET 18:00 BST, Trump will meet with Pakistan Army Chief, Asim Munir, a signal that the Trump administration sees Pakistan as a potential mediator with Iran.
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said Iran, "will not surrender".
- Pentagon force posture in the Middle East hints at military action but could also be part of a broader policy of strategic ambiguity.
- The Trump administration’s response to Iran is complicated by a growing schism between the MAGA isolationists and traditional conservatives in Trump's coalition.
- Only 16% of Americans think the US military should get involved in the conflict between, according to YouGov.
- Iran retains the capacity to strike US assets in the Middle East, roil oil markets, and disrupt commercial shipping routes.
- Vice President JD Vance said Congress is “in a good place” to get the Big Beautiful Bill to Trump’s desk by July 4.
- The CBO released a new “dynamic” score that estimates the OBBB would increase budget deficits by as much as USD$2.8 trillion.
- The Senate passed landmark legislation that establishes the first regulatory framework for stablecoins.
- Poll of the Day: The OBBB gets a lukewarm reception from voters.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS -5K TO 245K IN JUN 14 WK
Jun-18 12:30
- MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS -5K TO 245K IN JUN 14 WK
- US PREV JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED TO 250K IN JUN 07 WK
- US CONTINUING CLAIMS -0.006M to 1.945M IN JUN 07 WK
