US: Polling Shows Lukewarm Support For Big Beautiful Bill

A new New York Times/Siena College poll has found that “President Trump’s strategy to “flood the zone” may be working to keep his approval rating from sinking even lower.”

• According to Ruth Igielnik at the Times, “Voters who have not heard much about some of the many major news events from the first 100 days of Mr. Trump’s second term have a higher opinion of the job he is doing. A little under half of the 42 percent of voters who approved of the job Mr. Trump is doing as president said they had not heard much about at least some of the ups and downs of his administration’s decisions.”
• Silver Bulletin notes on the recent stabilisation of Trump's approval rating: "Donald Trump’s net approval rating is up to -5.8 in the Silver Bulletin average. That’s the highest it’s been since April 22nd, and up almost 4 points from Trump’s second term approval low-point on April 29th. Now this could just be noise driven by a dearth of new polls, or it could be a reversal of the downward trend we’ve seen since the start of Trump’s term. We’ll have to wait for more data to find out."

Figure 1: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump has handled the economy?”

Source: New York Times/Siena College 

President Trump announces that after a call with Russia President Putin, "Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War." 

• Front Brent crude dipped nearly $0.50 to $65.27/bbl but remained within the session's ranges; equities and the dollar were unmoved.
• Trump's full Truth Social post is below:
• "@realDonaldTrump: "Just completed my two hour call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. I believe it went very well. Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of. The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn’t, I would say so now, rather than later. Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree. There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its Country. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately. I have so informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, during a call with me, immediately after the call with President Putin. The Vatican, as represented by the Pope, has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations. Let the process begin!"

• RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
• RES 3: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3404 High May 19   
• PRICE: 1.3366 @ 16:37 BST May 19
• SUP 1: 1.3140 Low May 12   
• SUP 2: 1.3110 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041 Low Apr 14  
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

Recent weakness in GBPUSD appears corrective. The May 13 bounce highlights a possible reversal pattern - a bullish engulfing candle. The pattern remains valid and if correct, signals the end of the recent corrective cycle and a resumption of the uptrend. Key support to watch is 1.3117, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the key resistance and a bull trigger, at 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high.