CEE: Poll Suggests Support For Georgescu Rose Post-Annulment Of Romania Election

The first opinion poll conducted after the announcement of the date for the re-run of the Romanian presidential election showed that support for far-right, pro-Russian politician Calin Georgescu, the surprise winner of the initial, cancelled round of voting, rose sharply to 50%, with analysts noting that he has capitalised on public backlash against the way the government handled the ongoing crisis of domestic political institutions.

• An opinion poll conducted by Sociopol for Romania TV in mid-January indicated that half of all respondents were willing to cast their votes for Georgescu. There are questions surrounding the reliability of the poll, since Romania TV is known for its nationalist leanings and has been repeatedly fined for violations of local laws. However, two other surveys (admittedly conducted by undisclosed pollsters) circulated by withdrawn 2024 presidential candidate Cozmin Gusa and presumptive 2025 presidential candidate Nicusor Dan late last year put support for Georgescu at around 40%. In addition, Romania/Moldova analyst Kamil Calus of the Centre for Eastern Studies notes that these figures were consistent with unpublished polls commissioned by Romanian political parties.
• As a reminder, Georgescu secured 22.9% of the vote in the first round of the 2024 presidential election, advancing to the run-off with Elena Lasconi, who narrowly defeated PM Marcel Ciolacu in a race for the second place. The Constitutional Court initially upheld the results, but a few days later reversed its decision, based on information obtained from declassified intelligence reports suggesting Russian interference in the electoral process. The government set the date of the election re-run for May 6 and President Klaus Iohannis continues to serve in caretaker capacity until then. Measures taken to prevent a repeat of the events that led to the cancellation of the 2024 election have seemingly backfired. Questionable transparency of the relevant procedures and their improvised implementation, awkward communications and a slight delay in calling the election re-run (May as opposed to March) likely amplified anti-establishment sentiment, bolstering support for Georgescu.
• For clarity, under Romania's electoral law, a candidate must secure the votes of an absolute majority of all registered voters, otherwise two best performers advance to the run-off. Furthermore, it is unclear if Georgescu will be allowed to run in the 2025 race. However, trends in public sentiment bode ill for mainstream Romanian political camps, which will struggle to reverse them going forward. Even if Georgescu is barred from participating in the repeated election, the bulk of his votes would be redistributed to other far-right candidates.