UK: Poll Shows Little Public Confidence In Gov't Ability To Boost Growth

While financial markets continue to pile pressure on the Treasury (see 'GILTS: Further Selling', 1124GMT), political pressure on the gov't is also rising as voter confidence in PM Sir Keir Starmer's ability to boost growth collapses according to recent polling. The inaugural City AM/Freshwater Strategies poll carried out 4-6 January showed 75% of respondents were 'not confident' about the gov'ts plan to achieve economic growth, while 56% of respondents expected the UK economy to worsen over the next year compared to 19% expecting an improvement. 

• The poor polling comes amid reports of collapsing business confidence on the back of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' 2024 budget tax hikes, as well as speculation that the UK growth outlook and declining fiscal headroom could spur more tax increases later in 2025.
• City AM: "just one in six voters believe Labour is best placed to manage and grow the economy, compared to 20 per cent who think Tory leader Kemi Badenoch could do a better job, and 24 per cent who say the same for Reform leader Nigel Farage."
• The Starmer gov't commands a sizeable majority in the House of Commons and the next election is not due until 2029, ostensibly limiting immediate threats to gov't stability. However, the short tenure of PM Liz Truss in 2022 is demonstrative of how pressure from financial markets can hasten chancellors and prime ministers (if not the party in power) towards the exit door. 

Chart 1. 'How confident are you, if at all, about the UK gov'ts plan to achieve economic growth?', %

Source: City AM, Freshwater Strategy. N.b. Sample: 1,207 eligible voters in the UK, 4-6 January 2025. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%.