UKRAINE: Politico: US/Russia Deal On Ukraine Could Come As Soon As This Week
Nov-19 11:27
Politico reports that, according to an unnamed senior US official, "they expect a framework for ending the [Russia-Ukraine] conflict to be agreed by all parties by the end of this month — and possibly “as soon as this week.”" Comes in the wake of the Axios article overnight claiming that the US and Russia are in the process of drafting a peace plan for Ukraine. Earlier, the Kremlin appeared to push back on the claims made in the Axios piece (see ENERGY: Kremlin Denies Axios Peace Plan Reports)
- The senior US official tells Politico, “What we are going to present [to Ukraine] is reasonable,” ...The Trump administration thinks Zelenskyy, under pressure both on the battlefield and on the home front (due to a burgeoning corruption scandal), will have to accept what’s on offer."
- The lack of participation from Ukraine and Europe makes any such plan an extremely hard sell in Kyiv and Brussels, but Politico reports the US official as stating, “We don’t really care about the Europeans, it’s about Ukraine accepting.”
- The suspension of US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff's visit to Turkey, where he was due to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will be viewed as a signal that Washington is disinclined to bring Ukraine into its decision-making at present.
- Expectations for such any such US-Russia deal will be that Russia's demands are accepted en masse by the White House, where a swift end to the conflict by any means is preferable to European (and indeed Ukrainian) demands that Russia cannot emerge from the invasion having achieved its aims of mass territorial gain, even if it means a more protracted conflict or stronger measures against Russia.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Phase In Gilts Remains Intact
Oct-20 11:24
- In the FI space, despite strong selling pressure on Friday, a bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact. The impulsive nature of the latest rally and a fresh cycle high on Friday, paves the way for a test of the next key resistance 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key support is 129.12, the 20-day EMA. Initial firm support is 129.44, the Sep 10 high.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and last week’s strong impulsive rally reinforces current conditions. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The break opens 93.30 next, a 1.236 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Key support to watch lies at 91.39, the 20-day EMA. Initial firm support is at 91.82, the Sep 24 high and a recent breakout level.
UK: MNI Gilt Week Ahead: Another huge data week to come
Oct-20 11:18
Full MNI Gilt Week Ahead here.
- It will be another busy week for UK data next week with fiscal data due for release on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and retail sales and flash PMI data due on Friday. Note that these will be the last releases of these data to be included in both the November MPR and the OBR's forecasts for the Budget.
- We look at the weekend's fiscal news and the impact on CPI that different changes to energy taxation could have.
- We also look back at last week's main MPC comments and ahead to this week.
- The full document also includes supply previews for the week ahead, balance sheet and repo operations trackers, a UK-focused calendar and a summary of gilt operations and the DMO's issuance plans.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund downside Put Spread
Oct-20 10:57
RXF6 129.00/127.50ps, bought for 33 in 2k.
