POWER: Polish Front Month Rebounds to Highest Since 17 October
Poland’s November rebounded to increase to its highest level since 17 October on the back of price increases in European coal and emissions costs. Gains were capped by sustained forecasts for above seasonal temperatures, and limited power plant works are expected across November.
- Poland’s November baseload power settled at PLN453/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN449.10/MWh on 21 October, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.1% at 78.54 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal NOV 25 up 1.1% at 96 USD/MT
- The contract rebounded to end its four consecutive session downward trend. Despite this, it settled lower than on 16 October (last Thursday) at PLN453.60/MWh.
- Liquidity for the contract edged down from the all-time high in the previous session, with 47 lots done in 40 sessions compared to 50 lots in the previous session.
- EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising, supported by gains in EU gas and equities.
- Mean temperatures in Warsaw have been generally revised higher over 1-22 November and revised lower over 23-30 November but are expected to be above the seasonal norm throughout the entirety of the month.
- Limited works are key power plants in the country are still planned for November.
- Closer in, average temperatures in Warsaw were mostly revised lower over 24-28 October. Despite this, temperatures are expected to be above the seasonal norm for most days the 14-day ECMWF forecast.
- Unplanned works at the 225MW unit 9 at the 1.89GW Polaniec power plant will occur over 24 October- 1 November.
- The day-ahead dropped to PLN467.38/MWh for Friday delivery from PLN482.26/MWh for Thursday amid wind anticipated at a 49% load factor tomorrow compared to 31% today.
- Looking ahead, wind is anticipated to be at 5.46GW on 25 October (Sat), which could continue to weigh on delivery, coupled with typically lower weekend power demand.
Separately, Poland’s electricity transmission to and from Germany, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia will continue to face temporary export and import limitations in November due to planned maintenance on key network elements.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 6756.75 High Sep 22
- PRICE: 6754.25 @ 14:39 BST Sep 23
- SUP 1: 6616.34 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6577.25 Low Sep 10
- SUP 3: 6497.54 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6417.25 Low Aug 12
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. Price has breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection point. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6616.34, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Post-Flash-PMI React
- Treasury futures gain slightly after flash PMIs come out slightly lower than expected.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y trades +3 at 112-25.5 (yld 4.1254% -.0213) vs. 112-27.5 high - technical resistance above at 113-12/29 (High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger)
- Technical support at 112-21+/112-15+ (Intraday low / High Aug 5 and 14).
- Curves mildly mixed: 2s10s -.927 at 53.231, 5s30s +.236 at 106.171.
- US$ index gains slightly, Bbg's BBDXY +0.84 at 1196.79.
UN: Trump Address To UN General Assembly Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver remarks to the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. LIVESTREAM
- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Trump will deliver a “major speech touting the renewal of American strength around the world, his historic accomplishments in just eight months, including the ending of seven global wars and conflicts.”
- Leavitt added that Trump “will also touch upon how globalist institutions have significantly decayed the world order, and he will articulate his straightforward and constructive vision for the world.”
- Following his address, Trump is expected to hold bilateral meetings with UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Argentinian President Javier Milei, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
- At 14:30 ET 19:30 BST, Trump will hold a multilateral meeting with leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. Trump will present the Arab and Muslim leaders “with principles for peace and post-war governance in Gaza,” the most “concrete proposal to date from Trump for ending the war,” per Axios.
- Politico reports that while US officials have criticised a move by US allies to recognise a Palestinian state, “it seems the Trump administration plans to let the statehood push play out in New York with limited intervention.”
- French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer implied recently that relations with Washington will not be damaged by the statehood issue.
