POWER: Polish Front-Month Power Rises
Nov-14 14:49
Poland’s December OTC power contract settled higher with gains in EU gas and coal prices, weighed against lower EUAs and a downward revision in temperature forecasts.
- Poland’s December baseload power settled at PLN457.90/MWh, up from PLN454.60/MWh the previous session and still slightly below this week’s high of PLN458/MWh, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- Front-month futures liquidity declined to 25 lots across 21 sessions, down from 37 lots in 28 sessions the day before.
- EUAs Dec25 are tracking weekly gains but are trending lower on the day, pressured by losses in EU equities amid growing concerns that the Federal Reserve may skip a rate cut in December. The 30-day correlation between EUA-STOXX has tightened to 0.37 and surpassed EUA-TTF.
- The latest two-week weather forecast for Warsaw suggests mean temperatures have been revised up but are still expected to fall below normal next week before edging higher again.
- The latest wind forecast for Poland suggests output between 1.39GW and 5.17GW during base-load hours from 15 to 23 November, with strong output at the end of next week, according to SpotRenewables.
- Limited works are key power plants in the country are still planned for December – likely keeping supply firm.
- Works at the 670MW unit 10 at the 1.34GW Gryfino power plant are scheduled to end 15 November 00:00 CET.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.6% at 80.89 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 2.2% at 31.135 EUR/MWh
- Rotterdam Coal DEC 25 up 1.7% at 97.75 USD/MT
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GILTS: Futures Unable To Test Next Resistance
Oct-15 14:40
Gilts tracking moves in wider core global FI markets here, trading to fresh session highs before fading.
- Futures trade as high as 92.51, bulls fail to test the resistance cluster at 92.72/73.
- Yields 3.5-6.5bp lower, with the wings of the curve underperforming.
- Key support levels in 10- & 30-Year yields (4.496% & 5.309%) remain untouched.
- Dovish repricing in GBP STIRs holds, SONIA futures 0.5-4.5 higher, BoE-dated OIS showing ~9bp of easing through year-end.
- We have noted the potential for further outperformance in SFIZ6 vs. ERZ6.
- BoE Deputy Governor Breeden will speak twice this evening, although the subject matters of the addresses mean that she is unlikely to provide meaningful comments on monetary policy.
- Monthly GDP and economic activity data is due tomorrow, with BBG survey consensus looking for modest GDP growth (+0.1% M/M)
OPTIONS: Expiries for Oct16 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Oct-15 14:35
- EUR/USD: $1.1500-20(E1.5bln), $1.1580-00(E4.0bln), $1.1650-55(E783mln), $1.1700-05(E1.2bln), $1.1735-40(E837mln)
- USD/JPY: Y150.50($729mln), Y151.00($511mln), Y152.00($728mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6500-20(A$598mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3975($946mln)
CRYPTO: Bitcoin Upside Call Spread
Oct-15 14:28
- BTC (26th Dec) 135k/150k Call Spread, bought for 1575 in 300.
Note that the reports on Bitcoin Option have been downside protection of late.
