NATGAS: Poland's Orlen Boosts Natgas imports 6% on year in 2024: Platts
Orlen, Poland’s largest energy company, reported a 6% increase in net natgas imports for 2024, reaching 168.81 TWh, amid higher deliveries from Norway and Ukraine, Platts said.
- Imports via the Baltic Pipe from Norway rose 4% to 78.97 TWh, comprising 46% of total imports, while LNG regasification stayed steady at 67.25 TWh (39% of imports).
- Orlen received 20 LNG cargoes each from Qatar (1.83m mt) and the US (1.38m mt), plus 21 spot cargoes (1.39m mt).
- Imports from Ukraine surged 134% to 13.24 TWh, but EU pipeline deliveries dropped 39% to 10.93 TWh.
- Exports to Germany and Slovakia rose to 70k MWh, while exports to Lithuania fell 34% to 1.51 TWh, and shipments to Ukraine ceased.
- Total imports grew 2% to 170.39 TWh. Poland’s spot gas price fell 11% to Eur39.36/MWh, but the premium over German gas rose 40% to Eur4.76/MWh amid higher storage charges and risks to European gas infrastructure, Platts added.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
