POWER: Poland’s May Continues Fall to Hit Fresh All-Time Low
Poland’s May declined to a fresh all-time low, weighed down by both price falls in EU ETS and European coal. However, average temperatures in Warsaw throughout May are anticipated to be below the seasonal average, with works extended at the 829MW Opole 5 coal unit to 3 May.
- Poland’s May baseload power settled at PLN363/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN373.93/MWh on 25 April, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.6% at 65.37 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal JUN 25 down 0.4% at 93.25 USD/MT
- The May contract traded 75 times in 85 lots from 49 lots exchanged in the previous session. Liquidity for the product reached an all-time high.
- The contract opened at PLN369/MWh before rising to a daily high of PLN371/MWh to then fall to PLN365/MWh in the middle of the session and ending at a daily low of PLN363/MWh.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw were revised down over across May and will be below the seasonal average over 1-31 May.
- While works at the 829MW Opole gas plant is now due to end on 3 May from 29 April. Work at the unit started on 26 February.
- Additionally, the 358MW unit 3 at the Opole plant will also have planned works over 5-19 May.
- And the planned halt at the 781MW unit 14 4.68GW Belchatow coal plant is still due to end on 11 May, after having been extended from 28 April last week.
- Closer in, the day-ahead dropped to PLN317.53/MWh for Tuesday delivery from PLN340.76/MWh for Monday as wind is expected at a 30% load factor tomorrow from 8% today.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 24% load factor on 30 April (Wed) before dropping to a 15% load factor on 1 May.
- Separately, Polish grid operator PSE says there are currently no threats to the country's energy system, CEO Grzegorz Onichimowski confirmed the update in a post on X.
This comes after a widespread blackout in Spain and Portugal.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
