POWER:  Poland's March Drops 6.5% Lower On Week, Volatility Expected Next Week

Poland’s March fell for its fourth consecutive session to settle 6.5% lower on the week amid continued losses in European coal, however, the rate of fall slowed from the previous session amid gains in EU ETS. Spot prices are likely to be volatile next week as wind in Poland is expected between 9-34% load factors over 17-21 February.

• Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN442.75/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN447.51/MWh on 13 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
• This is sharply lower than its settled price on 7 February at PLN473.57/MWh – when the contract settled around 6% higher on the week.
• EUA DEC 25 up 1.6% at 79.27 EUR/MT
• Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 0.7% at 99.6 USD/MT
• The March contract traded 25 times in 32 lots from 29 lots exchanged in the previous session.
• The contract opened at PLN440/MWh before steadily falling to a daily low of PLN434/MWh and then rebounding to end the session at PLN445/MWh.
• The unplanned outage at Poland’s 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant has been extended to 16 February from 15 February, however, the unit will be curtailed by 454MW compared 834MW previously planned.
• Average temperatures in Warsaw have been mostly revised down on the day over 15-19 February but will be on a general upward trend heading into next week and flip above the 30-year norm on 25 February.
• Closer in, the day-ahead dropped sharply to PLN569.76/MWh for Saturday delivery from PLN744.07/MWh for Friday as wind is expected to remain firm at 18% load factor tomorrow from 19% today.
• Typically lower power demand in the weekend also placed downward pressure on spot prices.

• Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be between 9-58% load factors over 17-23 February (Mon-Sun) – likely leading to increased volatility on spot prices. The lowest amount of wind during the weekday is expected on 19 February at a 9% load factor, with the highest on 21 February at 34%.