POWER: Polands Front Month Falls Again on Emissions, Coal and Temps
Dec-10 16:16
Poland’s January dropped for the second consecutive session as losses in European coal and EU ETS placed downward pressure. Revised higher temperatures on the day added weight.
- Poland’s January baseload power settled at PLN486.79/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN491.63/MWh on 9 December, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.4% at 82.47 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal Jan 26 down 0.9% at 96 USD/MT
- Liquidity for the contract dropped from the previous session, with 24 lots done in 22 sessions compared to 29 lots in the previous session.
- EUAs Dec25 are falling, weighed by losses in EU gas and equities, with EUAs continuing to oscillate between the range of €81-83/t. EUAs Dec25 options are set to expire today.
- Mean temperatures in Warsaw were revised higher over 1-23 January, with temperatures now seen above the seasonal norm throughout the period- albeit negative.
- The 630MW Plock power plant will still be disconnected over 9-24 January. However, works at other key power plants will be limited over the month, keeping supply firm.
- Closer in, average temperatures in Warsaw were mostly revised higher over 11-15 December by as much as 0.6C. Temperatures are expected to be above the seasonal norm throughout the 14-day ECMWF forecast. However, they are seen cooling over the period.
- The 910MW Jaworzno 2 power plant unplanned 230MW curtailment will still last until 20 December before fully returning to the grid the next day, latest Remit data show.
- The 670MW unit 9 at the 1.34GW Gryfino power plant has ended its works and is now fully online.
- The day-ahead dropped to PLN434.64/MWh for Thursday delivery from PLN467.68/MWh for Wednesday amid wind expected at 52% load factor tomorrow compared to 26% today.
- Looking ahead, wind is anticipated to be at a 2.4GW, or a 26% load factor on 12 December (Fri) – which could support costs.
Separately, Poland will start construction works this month at the 3.7GW Lubiatowo-Kopalino (EJ1) nuclear power plant after receiving the European Commission’s approval for state aid on Tuesday.
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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Lower Airfares In Greece Counters Other Countries' Evidence
Nov-10 15:54
Softer airfares within Greece October HICP push back against findings from other larger European countries (Germany, Spain, Belgium) that airfares were a material driver behind the upside surprise in Eurozone services inflation (3.35% Y/Y vs 3.2% September). We are reluctant to put too much weight on it, however.
- Greece "passenger transport by air" Y/Y HICP (6.3% Oct vs 11.5% Sep) had moved in the same direction as the Eurozone equivalent in 7 out of 9 months this year prior to the October data.
- Categories generally associated with persistent services items, such as communication, health or education, meanwhile saw mixed developments in Greece in October.
- Given Greece's 2.9% basket weighting in the Eurozone as well as its relevance as a vacation destination, potentially introducing idiosyncrasies, we would not overinterpret the data. It remains likely that at least some of the Eurozone services upside surprise was driven by volatile travel-related categories, downplaying its impact but with final details still to come.
- Remember that ECB President Lagarde in her October meeting press conference again hinted that the persistence of services inflation drivers are important.
- The final October HICP release is likely the last round of inflation data flowing into the ECB's December projections. Our full review of the October flash HICP round and some commentary on current ECB rhetoric can be found here.
- Netherlands final HICP for October is scheduled for publication tomorrow ahead of Wednesday's release from Germany.
