POWER: Poland's Front Month Breaks PLN500/MWh Level Again, Hits Fresh High
Dec-19 15:17
Poland's January rebounded to end sharply higher on the week and break the PLN500/MWh level for the ...
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SWAPS: Pressure On Gilt Swap Spreads Extends
Nov-19 15:11
Underperformance for gilts vs. swaps extends further in recent trade, indicating increased fiscal and political risk premium in light of overnight reports questioning the long-term prospects of PM Starmer leading the Labour Party.
- The rally in wider risk assets will also be factoring in.
- 30-Year swap spreads now set for the lowest close since October 14, ~8bp off cycle closing highs registered in late October.
- Clean downside extension through the October 14 closing level (-85.77bp) would switch focus to the September closing low (-90.14bp).
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update - No Jumbos Today
Nov-19 15:07
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/19 $Benchmark Avalon Bay 5Y +95a
- 11/19 $500M VSP Optical WNG 10Y +170
- 11/19 $Benchmark Element Fleet 5Y +125a
- 11/19 $Benchmark SMBC Aviation 10Y +145a
- 11/19 $500M FIBRA Prologis WNG 10Y +170a
- 11/19 $Benchmark EOG Resources +5Y, 30Y tap
- 11/19 $Benchmark Bangkok Bank 5Y +115a, 10Y +130a
- 11/19 $Benchmark Western Alliance Bank 10NC5 +312a
- 11/19 $Benchmark Baxter 3Y +130a, 5Y +155a, 10Y +185a
- 11/19 $Benchmark First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) investor calls
US DATA: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Sees Cycle High 4.2% GDP In Q3
Nov-19 15:06
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q3 is now up to a cycle high 4.23% Q/Q SAAR - up from 4.05% prior. That is the highest estimate yet for Q3 from the Atlanta Fed, and if their model is correct, it would be the strongest since Q3 2023.
- "After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.9 percent to 4.8 percent was more than offset by an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.57 percentage points to 0.78 percentage points."
- Indeed inventories and net exports make up 1.11pp of that growth, so final domestic demand is running closer to 3%, but apart from weak structure (both residential and nonresidential) investment, the economy looks to be firing on all cylinders with PCE estimated to grow 3.4% Q/Q SAAR.
- As noted earlier, MNI expects the BEA to be able to provide a Q3 advance GDP estimate by early December.
