POWER: Poland's Feb Surges to All-Time High on Unplanned Outage

 Poland’s February climbed for the second consecutive session to reach an all-time high and eclipse its previous high on 29 November 2024 as European coal and emissions prices surged – supporting the product. The unplanned outage at the 834MW Jaworzno 2 also contributed to the rise, with average temperatures in Warsaw anticipated to flip below the norm from 7 February to head into harsh negative territory – raising heating demand.

• Poland Feb baseload power settled at PLN492.70/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN463.86/MWh on 28 January, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
• The contract reached an all-time high surpassing the previous on 29 November 2024 at PLN465/MWh.
• EUA DEC 25 up 3.3% at 82.89 EUR/MT
• Rotterdam Coal FEB 25 up 1% at 107.15 USD/MT at 13:49 GMT
• The February contract traded 50 times in 67 lots from 65 lots exchanged in the previous session.
• The contract opened at PLN475/MWh – the daily low – before climbing to a daily high of PLN494/MWh and dropping to PLN488/MWh at the end of the session.
• Average temperatures in Warsaw are now expected to flip and remain below the seasonal average over 7-12 February and are seen reaching as low as -2.3C on 9-10 February – likely increasing heating demand compared to previous days.
• The 834MW Jaworzno 2 B7 coal plant will undergo unplanned works on 29 January- 3 February due to emergency repairs, Remit data show today.
• Closer in, the day-ahead rose on the day to PLN552.14/MWh for Thursday delivery from PLN451.09/MWh for Wednesday as wind is expected at a 36% load factor tomorrow from a 50% load factor today.
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• Looking slightly ahead, wind will further to a 27% load factor on 31 January – which could lift power prices higher on the day.
• Average Temps in Warsaw are also expected at 4.5C on 31 January compared to 6.1C on 30 January – likely raising heating demand.

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