POWER: Poland’s April Drops to End of January Low

Poland’s April moved down to its lowest price since 27 January to track losses in European coal and emissions, with an upward revision of average temperatures in Warsaw also contributing to the decline. Spot prices are likely to drop for 13 March delivery as wind is expected to climb to a 21% load factor.

• Poland’s April baseload power settled at PLN403.22/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN415.45/MWh on 10 March, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
• The contract settled just above its close on 27 January at PLN403/MWh.
• EUA DEC 25 down 1.6% at 67.92 EUR/MT
• Rotterdam Coal APR 25 down 0.4% at 99.65 USD/MT
• The April contract traded 69 times in 72 lots from 24 lots exchanged in the previous session. This is the highest amount of liquidity for the product since trading first began.
• The contract opened at PLN412/MWh – the high for the day – before dropping to PLN405/MWh and ending the session at a daily low of PLN402.10/MWh towards the end of the session.
• Average temperatures in Warsaw revised higher over 12-16 March from the previous day by as much as 0.8C but are expected to continue cooling until 17 March before being on a general upward trend over 19-25 March.
• Closer in, the day-ahead remained elevated for Wednesday delivery at PLN526.43/MWh from PLN528.27/MWh for Tuesday as Polish wind is expected at a 5% load factor tomorrow from 13% today.
• Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 21% load factor on 13 March (Wed) – which could see prices drop.

• However, average temperatures in Warsaw will drop on 13 March to 9.7C from 10.2C on 12 March – which could limit losses.