EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Poland – potential PPC ext’n

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3435.0/3500.1 - High May 6 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger         
• PRICE: $3394.0 @ 07:22 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $3269.2/3202.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 1 
• SUP 2: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: $3164.3 - 61.8% retracement Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3115.1 - 50-day EMA 

Gold has recovered from its recent lows and this suggests the correction between Apr 22 - May 1, is over. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.

• The German Bund saw some little selling to test session low pre Cash open, a 20 ticks drop, but very little volume went through, circa 2k for that 20 minutes period pre open.
• The 130.75/130.70 area has still held, although did print as low as 130.66 Yesterday.
• Next support would be at 130.54 (50 day EMA), although better is seen towards 130.27.
• Resistance moves down 131.24.
• The US 10yr Yield will continue to be watched, traded near the 4.40% level Yesterday (4.3746% high), today this level comes at 110.23 in TYM5.
• There are no real Tier 1 Data for the session, the German Factory Orders saw a big beat on the Cash Open, but Bund actually went bid, not a non Market mover.
• For the rest of the day, Italian and EU Retail Sales are unlikely to move the needle, the US Session sees no Data of note, the main Focus {us} is on the FOMC Today (expected unchanged), the biggest event for the Week.
• SUPPLY: France 10s, 12s, 15s, UK sells £4.5bn 2030 (equates to 21.7k Gilt) could weigh.
• SPEAKERS: Fed Chair Powell's presser.

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $64.24/67.17 - 20- and 50-day EMA values           
• PRICE: $62.71 @ 07:06 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $58.00 -Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. Last week’s price action confirms recent gains between Apr 9 - 23 as corrective that allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $67.17. Initial resistance is at $64.24, the 20-day EMA.