EMISSIONS: Poland Opposes EU 2040 Emissions Target

The Bank of Canada decision is in just over 30 minutes (0945ET) - our full preview is here (PDF link) : 

• The BOC is likely to keep the overnight rate at 2.75%. Current OIS meeting-dated pricing implies between 15-20% probability of a 25bp cut today, though there are multiple analysts who have a cut as their base case - and the BOC has been known to surprise in the past.
• The next meeting in July is still very much "live" both with analysts and market pricing, with 17bp cumulative cuts priced through then, though the first full cut pricing is only through September's decision. 40bp of cuts are priced for the remainder of 2025.
• Statement / Press Conference: Consensus appears to be for a "dovish hold", keeping the door open to a cut in July.  The BoC will emphasize once again that it is committed to maintaining price stability amid high levels of uncertainty. We wouldn’t expect any sort of firmer forward guidance.
• Monetary Policy Report / Projections: There is no MPR at this meeting – the next release is in July.

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