POWER: Poland October Power Falls on Energy Complex, Wind

Sep-11 13:28

Poland’s October declined in Thursday’s session with a pullback in the energy complex and forecasts for high generation next week. 

  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.9% at 75.65 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 25 down 1.7% at 32.55 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal OCT 25 down 0.4% at 93.9 USD/MT
  • The Polish October power base-load OTC contract settled at PLN415/MWh, down from PLN417/MWh in the previous session, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
  • Liquidity for the contract increased to 34 lots done in 28 transactions, compared with 9 lots in 9 session the previous day.
  • The latest ECMWF two-week weather forecast for Warsaw suggests mean temperatures will remain above normal until mid-next week before briefly dropping below normal.
  • Wind output in Poland is forecast to rise next week to 3.1 – 4.72GW during base loa over 15-20 September.
  • Limited works at key power plants are still anticipated over October.
  • The 474MW Patnow B9 power plant is scheduled to be offline in an unplanned outage over 13-21 September.
  • The 630MW Plock power plant will also be fully disconnected over 19-27 September.
  • Planned works at 833MW Opole 6 are still scheduled to end on 21 September.
  • In the day-ahead market, the Polish sport power index declined to PLN457.92/MWh for Friday’s delivery, down from PLN503.77/MWh for Thursday delivery.
  • Wind output in Poland is forecast at 1.31GW during base load on Friday, down from 4.33GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables. 

Historical bullets

BUNDS: German 30yr Yield highest in 14yrs

Aug-12 13:17
  • German 30yr Buxl falls towards 115.00, helping push the Yield above the 2023 high of 3.263%, to reach its highest printed level since August 2011.
  • The next big upside target would be situated at 3.30%, which today would equate to 114.37.

US DATA: Travel Categories, Medical Services Largely Responsible For Core Uptick

Aug-12 13:06

As usual, core services contributed the majority of overall core CPI in July, worth around 0.28pp of the 0.32% M/M reading. That's up from 0.19pp in June (on a core CPI reading of 0.23% M/M). 

  • As seen in the table below, the increased services inflation pressure vs June's report was almost entirely due to airfares (0.05pp more of a contribution), lodging (0.03pp more, albeit still contributing negatively), and medical services (0.02pp more). The key housing categories had a relatively flat contribution vs June.
  • Core goods once again contributed 0.05pp, though the composition was different this month: used and new vehicles contributed slightly positively (after subtracting 0.04pp in June), with all other core goods seeing their contribution fall to 0.04pp from 0.09pp prior.
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US-CHINA: China Orders Companies To Halt NVIDIA Chip Orders

Aug-12 13:04

"*CHINA ORDERS COMPANIES TO HALT NVIDIA CHIP ORDERS: INFORMATION" Bloomberg
"*CHINA ORDER APPLIES TO BYTEDANCE, ALIBABA, OTHERS: INFORMATION" Bloomberg