EM CEEMEA CREDIT: POLAND: Increasing gas to exports to Ukraine

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing 
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3277.6/3347.5 - 20-day EMA / High May 9        
• PRICE: $3189.3.5 @ 14:31 BST May 14
• SUP 1: $3175.2 - Intraday low 
• SUP 2: $3164.5/64.3 - 50-day EMA / 61.8% of Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg 
• SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3071.5 - Low Apr 10

 A corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and the metal has traded lower today. A key support at $3202.0, the May 1 low has been breached. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards $3164.3, 61.8% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA is at $3164.5 - a key support too. A breach of both points would undermine a short-term bullish theme. Initial resistance is $3277.6, the 20-day EMA.

Delivering his first speech to the Bundestag as chancellor, Friedrich Merz commits to his gov't providing “all necessary financial resources” to see Germany's military become the most powerful in Europe in conventional terms (i.e. as a non-nuclear power). Merz said that "Strength deters aggression; weakness invites aggression," as his gov't prepares to take advantage of reforms to the debt brake enacted prior to the new coalition coming to power. The gov't will now have the ability to raise defence spending as any increase above the level of 1% of GDP is now exempted from the brake. 

• While the gov't has committed to significant defence spending increases, the immediate pressure on German (and wider European) defence spending could come sooner rather than later depending on the US' position on continuing to fund the Ukrainian military and provide financial aid to Kyiv. Germany's new Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said a short time ago that "We won't fully be able to fill the gap if the US withdraws from peacekeeping funding." Meanwhile, Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko has said that he sees "some kind of gap in support next year". 

Very short term FX Weekly Exchange traded Option, suggest a new position, there are no Open Interest in those Strikes.

• EURUSD (16th Mat) 1.1350/1.1400cs, bought for 0.00010 in 2.3k.