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US TSYS: Tsys Bid Upon London's Return, Focus on Tue's FOMC Minutes
- Treasuries gained moderate support after Europe returned from extended Christmas holiday, rates holding to narrow band since the Asia session cross-over.
- Currently, TYH6 trades 112-21.5 (+3) vs. 112-23.5 high with key short-term resistance into 112-31, the Dec 18 high. Improved volumes with London back on-line, the 10Y contract trading just over 215k at the moment.
- Curves mildly flatter: 2s10s -.947 at 63.722, 5s30s -.668 at 110.990. 10Y yield -.0156 at 4.1121.
- Cross asset update: Bbg US$ index near flat (BBDXY +.05 at 1201.00); Stocks mildly weaker (SPX emini -13.5 at 6965.75); Gold off last Friday's record high of 4533.21 to 4449.00 (down appr -84.0).
- Today's economic data limited to Pending Home Sales (1000ET) and Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (1030ET).
- Main focus on Tuesday's data schedule including the FOMC meeting minutes for the December meeting. Powell delivered a not-so-hawkish 25bp cut but with signs of a still clearly divided committee whilst we watch for discussions around changes in administered rates.
- In addition to FHFA housing prices and regional Fed data tomorrow, markets see latest MNI Chicago PMI release. Note: ADP announced the "NER Pulse won’t publish Dec. 30 because the week ending Dec. 13 corresponds to the reference week of the monthly National Employment Report. Main Street Macro and the NER Pulse will resume publication Jan. 13, 2026."
SOFR: Mix Of Short Cover & Long Setting In Futures On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover as SOFR futures ticked higher on Friday. Net long setting in the reds provided the most meaningful net pack OI swing.
| 26-Dec-25 | 24-Dec-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ5 | 1,522,573 | 1,534,132 | -11,559 | Whites | -5,403 |
SFRH6 | 1,311,995 | 1,315,366 | -3,371 | Reds | +23,848 |
SFRM6 | 1,169,334 | 1,155,753 | +13,581 | Greens | +2,277 |
SFRU6 | 1,202,563 | 1,206,617 | -4,054 | Blues | +2,305 |
SFRZ6 | 1,179,171 | 1,164,690 | +14,481 |
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SFRH7 | 873,108 | 870,724 | +2,384 |
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SFRM7 | 775,481 | 765,772 | +9,709 |
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SFRU7 | 804,039 | 806,765 | -2,726 |
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SFRZ7 | 852,703 | 852,150 | +553 |
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SFRH8 | 481,575 | 479,323 | +2,252 |
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SFRM8 | 401,360 | 401,228 | +132 |
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SFRU8 | 376,431 | 377,091 | -660 |
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SFRZ8 | 348,025 | 345,841 | +2,184 |
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SFRH9 | 217,162 | 216,656 | +506 |
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SFRM9 | 215,236 | 216,201 | -965 |
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SFRU9 | 174,661 | 174,081 | +580 |
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US TSY FUTURES: Cover Dominated On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting (TU), short cover (FV & TY) and long cover (UXY, US & WN) as the curve twist steepened on Friday. Lightening up of existing positions dominated, with the short cover in the belly of the curve providing the most notable positioning swing.
| 26-Dec-25 | 24-Dec-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,491,404 | 4,485,697 | +5,707 | +223,104 |
FV | 6,697,077 | 6,728,492 | -31,415 | -1,383,610 |
TY | 5,524,091 | 5,582,083 | -57,992 | -3,891,977 |
UXY | 2,520,380 | 2,527,710 | -7,330 | -664,646 |
US | 1,816,117 | 1,829,699 | -13,582 | -1,937,505 |
WN | 2,073,180 | 2,073,768 | -588 | -107,348 |
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| Total | -105,200 | -7,761,982 |
