EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Poland central bank comments and Headlines

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index rose 6.6% Y/Y in the first week of September (ending Sep 6), running a little above retailers' targeted 6.3% gain for the month.

• If sustained, this rate of sales would mark an acceleration from 6.1% in August and would be just below April's 6.7% for the 2nd-highest monthly growth since 2022.
• While reminding of the usual caveat that this is in nominal terms so may reflect ongoing tariff-related goods price inflation, the same can be said for Census Bureau retail sales data (for which the August release is on Sep 16, currently seen at +0.3% M/M for headline and 0.5% ex-auto/gas; the latter would imply the fastest Y/Y growth in 5 months at 4.9%).
• The anecdotal section of the report pointed to sustained retail demand going into the final month of the third quarter, notably with discount stores appearing to perform well. "Sales exceeded expectations in the first week of September, largely due to the Labor Day weekend, which brought in significant traffic early in the week. Both Sunday and Monday were particularly busy shopping days, marking the peak of this year’s back-to-school season. Shoppers responded enthusiastically to various Labor Day sales and promotions. Sales continued to be driven by the dual themes of back-to-school and seasonal apparel. Discount stores also reported strong food sales leading up to the long Labor Day weekend. While some retailers are approaching the end of their back-to-school calendar, others anticipate sustained momentum throughout the month, contributing to sales in electronics, children’s clothing, and school supplies."

• MNI: US REDBOOK: SEP STORE SALES +6.6% V YR AGO MO
• US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +6.6% WK ENDED SEP 06 V YR AGO WK

• The greenback has been trading on a much firmer footing in early NY trade, with the DXY now pressing fresh session highs as we await the US preliminary annual payrolls benchmark revision, due at 1000ET.
• Volatility for the Japanese yen has placed the focus on USDJPY Tuesday, having traded to within 10 pips of the key short-term support at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. The pair now stands a solid 65 pips off the lows as higher US yields provide some stability following the hawkish BOJ driven move earlier in the session.
• The latest bout of dollar strength has been most notable for EURUSD, now down 0.3% on the day at 1.1730. Lingering French political risks will likely be dampening topside momentum for the single currency. Earlier we noted that Fitch may downgrade France’s sovereign rating to A+ on Friday after hours, following Bayrou’s unsurprising ousting as Prime Minister after yesterday’s no confidence vote.
• Short-term parameters for EURUSD appear well defined at 1.1829 (Jul 01 high and bull trigger) and 1.1625 (50-day EMA support).