ISRAEL: PMO Confirms Prisoner Release Halt Until Issues w/Transfers Resolved
Jan-30 12:59
A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office confirms that the PM and Defence Minister Israel Katz "instructed to delay the release of the terrorists scheduled for release today—until a safe departure of our hostages in the next stages is ensured. Israel demands that the mediators achieve this."
- With the 'next stages' of the hostage release set to take place on Saturday 1 Feb, it could see the Palestinian prisoners slated for release today held for longer than the initial 'several hours' indicated by officials (see 'ISRAEL: Palestinian Prisoner Release Delayed Amid Backlash Over Hostage Handover', 1231GMT).
- A longer delay to the release of Palestinian prisoners risks Hamas refusing to comply with its obligations with regards to the exchange of hostages. The emphasis Netanyahu has placed on the mediators - US, Qatar and Egypt - to reach an agreement will likely see a diplomatic flurry in the coming hours to try to avoid a breakdown in the ceasefire.
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US: Republicans Outnumber Democrats For First Time In Decades
Dec-31 12:47
New analysis of survey data from Gallup shows that there are now more Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in decades.
- Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights notes: “Historically, this is practically unheard of. Democrats have held a longstanding advantage in party identification that dates back to the New Deal, with Republicans drawing even on only a couple of occasions — the 1994 Republican Revolution and the immediate post-9/11 period.”
- Ruffini continues: “We are now entering a period where the roughly even party ID split reflects the highly competitive nature of national elections. All things being equal we should expect a 50-50 political environment to yield tied party ID, rather than a 3- or 4-point Democratic ID edge. Good Democratic years will mean more Democratic identifiers in the electorate, and good Republican years will mean more Republican identifiers.”
Figure 1: US Adult Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years
Source: Gallup
STIR: Large Sep'25/Dec'25 SOFR Skew Spread Package
Dec-31 12:45
Checking direction on skew package:
- 24,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.50 call spds ref 96.035 vs.
- 12,000 SFRZ5 95.50 puts ref 96.07
USD: Finding a broader bid
Dec-31 12:15
- A broader bid is going through the Dollar, printing an intraday high against the Pound, AUD, CAD, CHF, ZAR, and NZD.
- Market participants will be looking at the AUDUSD and the Psychological 0.6200 level, printed a 0.6199 low on the 19th December, this was also its lowest level since October 2022.
- A clear break through that area, will open to 0.6170, the 2022 low and lowest level since April 2020.
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