SINGAPORE: PM Wong To Face First Major Electoral Test As PAP Leader On May 3
The Elections Department set the date for Singapore's general election (GE2025) for May 3, setting the clock ticking for a competition with all 97 seats in the country's legislature at stake. The Nomination Day has been set for April 23, giving candidates nine days to campaign ahead of the Cooling-off Day on the eve of the election.
- This will be the Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's first opportunity lead the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) to a general election after he took over as head of government from Lee Hsien Loong, who had held the position since 2004. The PAP has held a tight grip on parliament, winning a supermajority in every election since Singapore's independence.
- The Straits Times reported that "the ruling party will field more than 30 new faces - its largest slate in recent years." In addition, "it will face another tough fight from opposition parties, which have gained ground over the years on the back of bigger appetites for greater political checks and balances, as well as more alternative voices in Parliament."
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
