THAILAND: PM To Dissolve Parliament By End-Jan, Election By Late-Mar/Early-Apr
Reuters reports comments from PM Anutin Charnvirakul, stating that he intends to dissolve parliament by the end of January 2026, with elections then taking place in late March or early April. The early dissolution of parliament and snap legislative elections were part of the deal between Anutin's conservative Bhumjaithai Party and the progressive main opposition People's Party that allowed the PM's minority administration to come to office following the collapse of PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra's administration in early September.
- The announcement comes after Anutin held his inaugural cabinet meeting after a swearing-in ceremony for his ministers conducted by the King.
- Much like the previous election in 2023, the contest will pit progressive political forces against the populist Pheu Thai Party, dominated by the powerful Shinawatra clan, and the right-wing monarchist parties with close ties to the military.
- NYT noted earlier in September, "The People’s Party said that Mr. Anutin had also pledged to organize a referendum for a new constitution drawn up by an elected constituent assembly to replace the current one that was written by a military-appointed committee after a coup in 2014. Progressives have long viewed the current constitution as an undemocratic one that was designed to entrench the power of the royalist-military establishment."
- With the Constitutional Court ruling that three referendums would be required to enact a new constitution (two before it is drafted, one after), the prospect of this process finishing before a spring election appears slim.
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FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.072 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL
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FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.799 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL
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US DATA: Better Activity, Still-Elevated Inflation In Texas Manufacturing Sector
The Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for August showed continued growth in regional production, albeit with a slightly bigger than anticipated relapse in the overall general business activity index and slightly firmer price pressures. While these readings are volatile month-to-month, they continue to suggest improvement in activity after a tariff-hit period, but price pressures remain elevated (and regional firms still sound extremely concerned about tariff impacts).
- The general business activity index, which is tracked by Bloomberg consensus, missed expectations at -1.8 (vs -0.9 expected, +0.9 prior), which the Dallas Fed characterizes as "indicating little change in activity".
- But this underplayed the broader current strength in activity in the report. The production index, "a key measure of state manufacturing conditions" per the report, fell to 15.3 from 21.3 prior but remained above average, and other measures were also solid. The highlights in that department were new orders, rising for the first time since January (5.8 from -3.6), and shipments rising 12 points to 14.2 for a 3+ year high.
- Forward-looking indicators also suggested improvement (the 6-month production outlook rose to a 7-month high 40.4), while "labor market measures suggested increases in employment and work hours".
- Against this backdrop, price pressures mostly edged higher: current prices paid to a 5-month high 43.7 (up 2.0 points) with priced received at a 2-month high 15.1 (up 4.0 points). 6-month ahead prices paid were basically unchanged at 47.8 (up 0.1 points) albeit a fresh 5-month high, with future prices received pulling back to a 2-month low -12.3 from -4.5.
- Special questions (which also covered services firms ahead of Tuesday's Dallas Fed services release) showed that 48 percent of surveyed businesses "said they’ve been negatively impacted by higher tariffs this year" (just 2% said they were positively impacted), with more than 70 percent of manufacturing firms noting negative impacts. Note also "Firms negatively impacted by tariffs were mixed on whether they passed on cost increases to customers (48 percent of firms) versus absorbed costs internally (39 percent of firms)." The anecdotes in the report add some color to these findings - link here.
