UK: PM Seeks To Counter Reform UK w/Speech Attacking Farage 'Fantasy' Economics

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is set to deliver a speech shortly that intends to counter the rising popularity of the right-wing populist Reform UK and its leader, Nigel Farage. Livestream here. As The Guardian reports, Starmer is set to accuse "the Reform UK leader of promoting “fantasy” tax-and-spending plans that would unleash a Liz Truss-style economic crisis. In a fightback against attempts by Farage to win over blue-collar voters with bold promises on taxes and benefits, the prime minister is to say Reform risks spooking the financial markets and driving up mortgage costs for millions of households."

• Earlier this week, Farage sought to counter the Labour gov't from the left, claiming his party would reinstate the universal winter fuel payment for pensioners, remove the two-child benefit cap, and raise the tax-free threshold before individuals start paying income tax from GPB12,750 to GBP20,000. The Institute for Fiscal Studies claims the latter policy could cost the Exchequer between GBP50-80B per year.
• Starmer is facing increasing pressure from the left of his party to water down reforms to the welfare state that have been deemed crucial by Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves for ensuring the gov'ts fiscal rules are adhered to.
• It remains to be seen how the gov't walks the fiscal tightrope of countering Reform's left-wing economic pledges, keeping the left of the party backbenchers on side, and avoiding market jitters over the UK's fiscal trajectory. The upcoming Spending Review on 11 June is set to give some pointers as to the gov'ts long-term spending plans. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 4-Poll Moving Average

Source: YouGov, More in Common, Opinium, Techne, Find Out Now, Freshwater Strategy, BMG, Survation, Lord Ashcroft Polling, Focaldata, JL Partners, Whitestone Insight, Deltapoll, Stonehaven, We Think, MNI